SP Group (Investment Case): Continued growth expected in 2026 after record Q4 2025
Oversigt
- SP Group oplevede en beskeden omsætningsvækst på 0,9% i 2025 til DKK 2,948 mio., men forbedrede EBITDA-marginen til 20,2% trods udfordringer som projektudsættelser og geopolitiske usikkerheder.
- For 2026 forventer SP Group en omsætningsvækst på 15-23% understøttet af Ide-Pro's fulde års bidrag, kapacitetsudvidelser i USA og Polen samt nye kontrakter inden for sundhedssektoren.
- Investeringstilfældet fremhæver SP Group's "buy-and-build" strategi, stærk eksponering mod strukturelle væksttemaer og potentielle synergieffekter fra Ide-Pro opkøbet, men peger også på risici som kundekoncentration og integrationsudfordringer.
- SP Group handles til en EV/EBITDA på 7,4x for 2026E, hvilket er i tråd med medianen for peers, men med en 25% rabat på EV/EBIT, hvilket kan indikere en ikke fuldt prissat kvalitetsforskel.
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In connection with the publication of SP Group's annual report for 2025, we have updated our investment case.
2025 was a mixed year for SP Group. Revenue grew 0.9% to DKK 2,948m after mid-year softness as customers postponed projects amid geopolitical uncertainty, forcing a guidance downgrade in July. However, the EBITDA margin improved to 20.2%, extending an 8.2 percentage point expansion since 2015, and Q4 2025 realised record revenue, and EBITDA. EBT was flat year-on-year at DKK 345m after absorbing approximately DKK 27m in US factory start-up and Ide-Pro acquisition costs. SP Group continued shareholder returns with DKK 4.0/share in dividends and a DKK 80m share buyback programme.
For 2026, SP Group guides 15-23% revenue growth, and, as in 2025, EBITDA margin of 19–21% , and EBT margin of 11–13%, implying revenue of DKK 3.4-3.6bn and EBITDA of DKK 645-755m. The guidance is supported by the first full-year contribution from Ide-Pro (approximately 15 percentage points of the revenue growth), capacity expansion in the US and Poland, and new customer contracts particularly in Healthcare.
Our investment case covers the key investment reasons, risks, and valuation perspectives.
The key investment reasons centre on SP Group's buy-and-build strategy which has delivered a 10-year revenue CAGR of 8.6%, the Ide-Pro acquisition which expands market access including India and brings DKK 20–25m in expected synergies from 2027, and strong exposure to structural growth themes with Healthcare (40%), Cleantech (27%), and Foodtech (13%) representing 80% of 2025 sales.
The key risks include customer concentration (top 10 customers at 49% of revenue), integration risk on the Ide-Pro acquisition which was acquired at a higher EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.6x versus the historical sub-5x, and the Middle East conflict which has driven up oil-derived raw material and energy prices and may pressure growth and margins if it escalates.
From a valuation perspective, SP Group trades at 7.4x EV/EBITDA (2026E), broadly in line with the peer median of 7.3x, but a discount on EV/EBIT and a premium on P/E. The record Q4 exit rate and strong 2026 guidance suggest the quality gap may not yet be fully priced in. Catalysts for re-rating include delivering a continued momentum in Q1 2026, demonstrating Ide-Pro synergies, and further margin expansion towards the 2030 ambition of 20–22% EBITDA margin on DKK 4.5bn revenue.
For more insights into the results and the outlook, you can watch the management presentation of the FY 2025 results and 2026 outlook here: https://www.inderes.dk/videos/sp-group-praesentation-af-arsregnskabet-for-2025
Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from SP Group for a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility subscription agreement. /Philip Coombes, 16:21, 31/03-2026