Roblon is going through a cyclical trough. H1 2025/26 revenue fell to DKKm 73.0 (DKKm 113.0), down 35%, with EBITDA before special items of DKKm -7.5 (DKKm 26.2) and EBIT before special items of DKKm -13.1 (DKKm 19.0), both at the lower end of guidance. In Q2 alone, revenue was DKKm 43.2 (DKKm 61.9) and EBIT before special items DKKm -3.9 (DKKm 16.0). The gross margin softened to 57.5% (65.9%) on a less favourable product mix. Management maintains its unchanged full-year guidance of DKKm 170-210 revenue, DKKm 0-20 EBITDA and DKKm -10 to 10 EBIT, while flagging an increased risk of landing at the lower end.

The downturn is concentrated in the Composite product group, where revenue fell DKKm 44.3 in H1. Two factors drove this: a temporary stop in orders from the offshore oil & gas industry, partly due to a principal customer's excess inventory, and an anticipated interruption in orders for subsea energy cable strength members, a project-based area that swings from year to year. FOC, by contrast, grew revenue by DKKm 4.3 on a gradually normalising European market.

There are indications the weakness is timing-driven rather than structural. Management expects a higher activity level in subsea energy cables from 2026/27, customer dialogues and development activities on upcoming cable projects continue, and the May 2026 order intake of DKKm 30.2, well above the monthly run-rate and against DKKm 69.4 booked across the first six months, is largely for execution within 2025/26 and supports the full-year guidance. Cost actions taken in Q1 2025/26 are expected to cut costs by around DKKm 5 in 2025/26 and staff costs by DKKm 4.8 annually from 2026/27.

In March 2026 Roblon launched its GPS-3 strategy, sharpening the focus on critical energy infrastructure, a market expected to grow double-digit towards 2030 on electrification and energy transmission. The strategy rests on three priorities: from supplier to strategic partner, new business initiatives and products, and a sharpened focus on subsea HV transmission, where Roblon targets a top-3 position in synthetic reinforcement elements. The mature FOC business is expected to fall below 25% of revenue by 2029/30. The strategy underpins clear 2029/30 ambitions of DKKm 400+ revenue (a CAGR above 20%), DKKm 70+ EBITDA and DKKm 50+ EBIT, a material step-up from the current base.

The key investment reasons center on this repositioning. GPS-3 aligns Roblon with structurally growing energy infrastructure demand and a credible 2030 ambition to roughly double revenue and lift margins. A strong balance sheet, with a 72% equity ratio and DKKm 99.3 in total cash resources at the end of H1 2025/26 (including an undrawn DKKm 84.0 facility), provides resilience through the downturn and flexibility to invest through the trough. Early signs of recovery are visible in the high May 2026 order intake, and the divested US activities leave a DKKm 32.8 receivable and a preference share carried at zero, a potential additional upside.

The key risks remain centered on customer concentration, project timing and execution. A single offshore oil & gas customer cutting purchasing on excess inventory drove much of the H1 decline, and subsea energy cable demand is project-based and lumpy, with a higher activity level only expected from 2026/27. Execution risk on GPS-3 is real, as roughly doubling revenue by 2029/30 requires winning new customers, products and segments against larger competitors. Small-cap liquidity, limited free float and macro sensitivity, including FX (notably CZK), input costs and the energy investment cycle, add further uncertainty.

From a valuation perspective, Roblon screens optically expensive on near-term multiples as a direct function of the depressed 2025/26 earnings base rather than a rich rating. On 2025/26E estimates the EV/EBITDA of 19.6x sits well above the Fiber & Composite peer median of 8.1x, while on EV/Sales the gap is far narrower at 1.1x versus 1.0x, as the revenue base has held up better than profitability. The multiples normalise as earnings recover towards the 2030 ambitions, and the shares trade at a modest premium to a book value of DKK 82.4 per share while earnings are depressed. We view Roblon as a recovery and re-rating case: optically high earnings multiples on a trough year, underpinned by a strong balance sheet and a credible 2030 plan tied to structurally growing energy infrastructure.

For further insights into the H1 results and management's focus areas for the rest of 2025/26, you can watch the event we hosted with Roblon: https://www.inderes.dk/videos/roblon-praesentation-af-regnskabet-for-2-kvartal-202526

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Roblon for a Digital IR subscription agreement. /Rasmus Køjborg, CFA & William Jørck 08:30 24/06/2026