Nexstim: A solid end to a record year

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 01/05/2026 at 07:00 am EET

In the summer of 2025, Nexstim's system sales were particularly busy, helping the company achieve a unit sales record for the full year. During the seasonally busy Q4, the company announced 12 system orders, which was slightly below the comparison period and our estimate. The company also recently announced an update to the Sinaptica agreement, under which the majority of the agreement's cash payments will be made as a convertible bond. Changes to the Sinaptica agreement and our updated system sales estimate lead to downward revisions. As a result of the change , we revise our target price to EUR 12 (was 12.5) and reiterate our Reduce recommendation based on the high stock valuation.

Summer acceleration in system sales stabilized towards the end of the year

Based on the company's reporting and releases, we estimate that full-year 2025 system sales were around 35 units, of which around 25 were delivered in H2 (Inderes' H2 estimate: 30 systems). There was a particularly high number of deal releases between May and August, which led us to set our estimates for the rest of the year too high in connection with the H1 report. Q4 was good in terms of announced deals (12), but still fell slightly short of the comparison period (14 announced) and our estimate. Deals focused slightly more on therapy systems than we expected, whose prices are lower than those of diagnostic systems.

Revenue from Sinaptica agreement fell short of expectations

Before Christmas, Nexstim updated information on the status of the Sinapticaagreement, which we commented on here. Our estimates included 1.3 MEUR of revenue from Sinaptica for H2, based on the agreement between the companies (6/2025). Based on the update, Nexstim will recognize 0.1 MEUR in revenue in H2'25 and 0.2 MEUR in 2026. The cash flow effect for 2025 is 0.3 MEUR. The remaining 1 MEUR was converted into a Sinaptica convertible bond. The loan carries a relatively high risk, as Sinaptica has not been able to finance its operations according to its plans (arranging a Series A financing round in 2025). The companies extended the exclusive agreement until the end of 2026, and the companies aim to sign the final agreement during 2026.

We revise our estimates downwards

We cut our 2025 revenue estimates based on 1) lower-than-estimated revenue from Sinaptica, 2) lower-than-estimated system sales volume in H2, 3) sales weighted towards lower-priced therapy systems compared to our estimate, and 4) a weaker EUR/USD exchange rate than in the comparison period. The slower-than-expected progress of the Sinaptica agreement and our estimates for system sales volumes are reflected to some extent in our estimates for the coming years. The change to the Sinaptica agreement has a fulal impact on our 2025 earnings estimate, which is also depressed by lower revenue. We believe that Nexstim will also upgrade some previously sold NBS5 systems to new NBS6 systems, which we expect to cause moderate additional costs and weigh on H2's sales margin. Our and long-term estimates remain largely unchanged

The price already reflects solid development

We base our valuation on EV/S multiples and the DCF model, as the earnings level for the coming years is still on a rather uncertain footing. Nexstim's 2025e EV/S is 9x and 7x in 2026e, with our estimates that expect strong growth. Multiples that are high in absolute terms require rapid growth to continue not only in the coming years but also in the longer term. Our DCF model indicates a value of EUR 12 per share. We consider the share to be overvalued when taking into account the uncertainty associated with the estimates and the binary risk associated with the agreements. Thus, we will wait for better opportunity to buy.