Inderes Group - Risks of market tailwind fading - SEB

Ahead of Inderes’ Q1 report, we keep our estimates broadly unchanged despite Jan-Feb sales data coming in slightly below our estimates. The recent geopolitical escalations dampen the IPO outlook, and we flag downside risks driven by the fading tailwind of market growth. Yet, we do not see the IPO window as closed should the Middle East situation calm and the worst of inflationary pressure ease. Fair value range unchanged at EUR 18-20.

Q1E: AGM season kick off in March, progress continues internationally

We estimate Q1 growth of 3%, which after a flat Jan-Feb implies c. 6% growth in March. We think that March could see somewhat higher AGM volumes vs the previous year. We note that the mix shift in AGM productions (from hybrid to digital) may have an adverse impact on sales. Yet, the profit impact could well be benign as the gross margin in software is notably higher. In terms of Q1 EBITA margin, we expect 9%, slightly down from 10% the previous year. We continue to stress the importance of the international expansion to the case. We expect the share of international sales to have risen to 22.1% in Q1 (2025: 20.5%).

Recent uncertainty may scare IPO candidates

Geopolitical tensions have likely caused more uncertainty among possible IPO candidates in Finland. However, recent changes in the Middle East lead us to believe the IPO window may have remained open. Moreover, despite the uncertainty, there was a recent IPO in the Finnish market and a couple of listed companies demerged in Q1. Consequently, we stick to our view of underlying market growth driving overall growth for Inderes in 2026. In addition to market growth, Inderes’ top line should enjoy a boost from continued software penetration as well as international growth. We forecast 6% growth in 2026.

Fair value remains unchanged at EUR 18-20

Inderes trades on 2026E EV/EBITDA of 9x, which is undemanding given the nature of the business. Yet, low peer valuations drag our overall fair value down.