Ahead of Inderes’ Q3 report, we slightly finetune our estimates, which were already well aligned with the increased margin guidance. Inderes’ recurring business is on a healthy growth track, and the company has proven its position with a high win-rate among new market entrants. As always, we look closely at international performance, as the Swedish expansion holds the largest potential upside for the investment case.

Recurring business run-rate in July-August; project volatility in September

After reporting 12% growth in July-August, we expect a healthy 9% in September. However, we remind that September sales are more dependent on project sales, i.e. timing of CMDs and other events, which may cause volatility. Given the IPO activity in 2026, we expect Inderes to have continued to increase its number of research contracts. We also remind that IPO activity does not only mean research business; in fact, we think new market entrants are more likely to acquire other IR services before signing research agreements. In terms of international business, we expect sales of EUR 1.1m, up 13% y/y and representing some 25% of the total. In terms of EBITA margin, we expect 21.5% (Q3/25: 18.4%) in a seasonally strong quarter.

Estimates broadly unchanged after margin guidance hike

Inderes’ margin guidance hike and sales growth specification were well aligned with our estimates. Yet, the announcement confirms our view of an improving underlying market and the fact that Inderes has a very high win-rate among companies entering the Finnish stock exchange. While there is still some market penetration potential for its software, we note that the domestic business remains highly dependent on underlying market growth, which is looking promising for the time being.

Fair value range unchanged at EUR 19-21

Our SOTP valuation is slightly up, but our blended approach remains unchanged.