Hafnia (Investment Case): Cash converted into dividends and deleveraging
Oversigt
- Hafnia reported strong Q2 2026 results with a net profit of USD 277.8m, adjusted EBITDA of USD 287.3m, and TCE income of USD 372.9m, achieving a return on equity of 44.6% and a return on invested capital of 35.2%.
- The company declared a 90% dividend payout of USD 250.0m, reducing gross debt from USD 1,036m to USD 798m, and increasing net asset value to approximately USD 4.4bn.
- H2 2026 is expected to be softer with 53% of earning days covered at USD 28,917 per day, and consensus estimates FY2026 TCE income at USD 1,266m, EBITDA at USD 886m, and net profit at USD 695m.
- Hafnia trades at a premium to its peers with a 2026E EV/EBITDA of 6.0x and EV/EBIT of 7.4x, compared to peer medians of 4.4x and 6.0x, respectively.
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Following Hafnia's Q2 2026 report, we have updated our investment case on the company. Our updated investment case covers the key investment reasons, risks, and valuation perspective relative to peers across product tanker peers.
Results. Hafnia delivered its strongest quarter since Q3 2022 in the second quarter of 2026, with net profit of USD 277.8m, adjusted EBITDA of USD 287.3m and TCE income of USD 372.9m, producing an annualized return on equity of 44.6% and a return on invested capital of 35.2%. The fleet earned an average TCE of USD 44,093 per operating day against vessel operating expenses of USD 8,981 per calendar day, with spot earnings higher still at USD 49,986 per day and LR2s at USD 131,160, achieved despite approximately 392 vessel days lost to the heaviest scheduled drydocking programme of the year. Vessel sales contributed USD 39.3m of gains and the fee-based businesses USD 8.8m.
Distribution and balance sheet. With net LTV falling from 24.9% at year-end 2025 to 13.0%, Hafnia reached the top tier of its leverage-linked dividend policy and declared a 90% payout of USD 250.0m, or USD 0.5003 per share, taking H1 2026 distributions to USD 0.7880 per share. Gross debt fell from USD 1,036m to USD 798m over the half-year, leaving total liquidity of USD 631m and 67.6% of interest-rate exposure hedged at 2.85%. Net asset value rose to approximately USD 4.4bn, equivalent to USD 8.89 (~NOK 88.47) per share, while the 13.97% TORM holding was marked at USD 369.0m and contributed USD 9.9m of dividend income in the quarter.
Outlook. The second half will be softer: 53% of H2 earning days are covered at USD 28,917 per day and 80% of Q3 at USD 30,716, around a third below the Q2 average, with scheduled off-hire easing to approximately 225 days in Q3. Consensus looks for FY2026 TCE income of USD 1,266m, EBITDA of USD 886m and net profit of USD 695m, before a step down in 2027. Ten MR newbuilds for 2028–29 delivery carry USD 503.6m of remaining commitments, of which USD 151.1m falls due within one year, and from 2027 net LTV will be reported on a fully committed basis. Søren Steenberg Jensen succeeded Mikael Skov as CEO on 1 September 2026.
Valuation. At NOK 86.9 Hafnia trades at 6.0x 2026E EV/EBITDA and 7.4x EV/EBIT against product tanker peer medians of 4.4x and 6.0x — premiums of 36% and 24% — on 6.7x 2026E earnings and marginally below reported NAV, rising to 9.6x EV/EBITDA on 2027E as consensus earnings normalise.
Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Hafnia for a Digital IR subscription agreement. /Rasmus Køjborg, CFA & Nikolaj Pedersen 11:00 15/09-2026