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Analyse

ExpreS2ion Biotech (One-pager): Pipeline focus on HER2+ breast cancer therapy

ExpreS2ion Biotech Holding
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Although not a one-product company, the primary shareholder value creation lies in the progression of its ES2B-C001 breast cancer vaccine candidate, given its unmet need within HER2+ breast cancer therapy, and very large addressable market at around USD 10bn[1] annually based on current treatments.

The ES2B-C001 vaccine targets the HER2+ protein, associated with a more aggressive, higher recurrence, and higher mortality rate disease. The ES2B-C001 vaccine targets multiple HER2+ epitope sites vs existing therapies (1-2 epitopes) of the HER2-ECD. Existing monoclonal therapies have been associated with resistance, (which pre-clinical data has overcome), and additional adverse cardiac effects. An elongation of progression free survival (PFS) or reduced cardiac effects would offer a significant advantage.

From a valuation perspective, a DCF-modelling approach is considered appropriate. Based on the assumptions discussed on pages 2 and 3, the model suggests that the market is discounting around a 4% chance of ExpreS2ion Biotech’s success including its ES2B-C001 candidate and technology platform. Since the company’s market value is on par with its cash position the market is attributing little value to ExpreS2ion’s pipeline, platform, and 34% ownership of AdaptVac. Our model indicates that the market implied PoS is below the average benchmark for a Phase I candidate which might be explained by a view that future dilutive capital raises are needed to reach the clinical milestones necessary to secure partnership financing and may also be influenced by very low share liquidity.

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from ExpreS2ion Biotech for a Digital IR subscription agreement. /Claus Thestrup 8:55, 10/06/2025.

ExpreS2ion er en biotekvirksomhed med base i Danmark, men børsnoteret i Sverige. Virksomheden udvikler en portefølje af vacciner mod sygdomme som COVID-19, influenza og brystkræft gennem brugen af dets cellebaserede ekspressionssystem, ExpreS2, som er anerkendt for at håndtere protein udfordringer. ExpreS2ion har udviklet Expres2, som er en teknologiplatform til effektiv og hurtig ikke-klinisk udvikling og produktion af komplekse proteiner til nye vacciner og diagnostik. På nuværende tidspunkt er selskabets primære produkt corona-vaccinekandidaten, ABNCoV2 som er i fase 2, udviklet sammen med sin partner, AdaptVac, hvoraf ExpreS2ion ejer 34%. Vaccinekandidatens licensret tilhører Bavarian Nordic som har globale kommercialiseringsrettigheder og ansvar for yderligere klinisk udvikling af vaccinen.

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