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Analyse

Columbus (Investment Case): Well-positioned for margin expansion as growth returns

Columbus
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Columbus released its Annual Report for 2025 this Thursday, with figures in line with January's preliminary results.

2025 was a challenging year marked by prolonged decision-making cycles and project delays, particularly in the Nordics, leading to a 5% revenue decline. Columbus responded with rightsizing initiatives, reducing headcount by nearly 100 employees, while simultaneously investing in AI capabilities through new hires and internal training programs to prepare for the next growth phase. For 2026, Columbus guides 0-5% revenue growth and an 8-10% EBITDA margin, signaling a return to growth.

The 0-5% growth guidance and management's comments on tender activity suggest we may be at the bottom of the negative growth cycle. With the business now rightsized, any return to growth could translate into significant operational gearing given the high fixed cost base typical for IT consultancies. 

Columbus remains part of Microsoft's 'Inner Circle' for the 21st consecutive year, positioning the company to capitalize on emerging technologies such as agentic AI as a potential next growth driver. The "New Heights" long-term targets of 10% revenue growth and 15% EBITDA margin remain unchanged, though the timeline is under review with a new strategy expected in November 2026.

We have updated investment case, where we highlight Columbus as an IT consulting pure-play well-positioned for a demand rebound. Key investment reasons include the streamlined cost base, Microsoft partnership advantages, and shareholder value focus demonstrated by the 2025 strategy review. Key risks include uncertainty on long-term margins given external dependencies and ongoing questions about AI disruption in the IT service sector.

On valuation, Columbus trades at 0.8x EV/Sales (2026E) below Nordic peers at 1.2x, and 9.4x EV/EBITDA versus peers at 8.2x. Both the sector and Columbus trade below historical averages, leaving room for multiple expansion if growth returns.

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Columbus for a Digital IR subscription agreement. /Michael Friis, 12:30, 13/03-2026

Columbus er et internationalt konsulenthus med hovedkontor i Danmark og mere end 1.500 medarbejdere og 1.100 kunder globalt. Columbus rådgiver og implementerer digitale løsninger, der understøtter forretningskritiske processer inden for bl.a. produktion, detailhandel, fødevarer og life science. Serviceydelserne omfatter Cloud Services, Data & AI, ERP, CRM, digital handel og cybersikkerhed. Columbus har lokal tilstedeværelse i Norden, Storbritannien og USA – og global leverance – og er positioneret til at drive digital transformation og skabe skalerbar vækst.

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