Midsona: Persistent earnings despite soft sales - ABG

* Q4e: soft growth, but margins supported by restructuring programme* Estimate cuts on FX and product mix* Trading at '26e EV/EBITA of ~7.5xWhat to expect in Q4'25eWe anticipate -1% y-o-y organic growth in Q4'25e, implying sales of SEK 918m and adj. EBIT of SEK 36m, for a margin of 4%. We expect sales to be significantly impacted by FX headwinds, reducing our sales growth estimates to -4.5%. The Spanish factory fire remains a headwind for volumes, but the loss of lower-margin output supports a mechanically higher gross margin of 28% through mix, masking underlying volume pressure. We note that the GM in Q4'24 was strong at 28.9% compared to an average of 26% in Q4s L5Y. Our estimated adj. EBIT margin is up 0.3pp y-o-y, as we expect total opex to decline by 6%, partly on the recent cost savings initiatives.Estimate changesWe lower '25e-'26e adj. EBIT by 2-3%. We decrease our gross profit estimates on a less favourable product mix and updated FX movements, although this is offset by our slightly decreased opex estimates. We believe that continued weakness in the Nordics is to be expected as Midsona phases out licenced brands. However, we believe that continued strength in North Europe is likely and that Midsona's own brands will continue to grow in '26e alongside underlying improvements in South Europe (excluding the effect from the fire). Keep in mind that Q1'26 will be the final quarter to face tough comps from the fire in Spain and that margins are likely to improve as the product mix shifts further away from licenced brands and the restructuring programme is fully implemented.Implied valuationBased on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ~7.5x '26e EV/EBITA, which is ~30% below current peer multiples. We note that peers, in turn, are trading ~25% below the 10-year historical median of ~14x NTM EV/EBITA.