* Q2'26 numbers due on 22 July at 07:45 CET
* Minor estimate changes, margins unchanged
* Fair value range kept at SEK 190-270
Q2'26 expectations
For Q2, we expect Medicover to perform broadly in line with Q1'26. In Poland and Romania, government funding pressures are creating a near-term headwind in the publicly funded segment. However, we expect volumes to recover over time through a higher FFS mix. For HS, we forecast org. growth of 10.5% and an EBITDAaL margin of 13.0%. In Germany, we expect the lab business to remain stable despite tighter public funding reimbursement. For DS, we forecast org. growth of 9% and an EBITDAaL margin of 13.8%. We expect India to keep building momentum as new hospital capacity ramps up, although growth should moderate from a very strong Q1'26. In June, Medicover confirmed discussions with KKR regarding a potential sale of its 66.9% stake in the Indian business (USD 1bn+), while continuing to pursue an IPO in parallel. No transaction is certain. In total, we forecast sales of EUR 641m, driven by ~10% org. growth, and adj. EBITDA of EUR 111m (17.3% margin).
Minor estimate changes
We make minor downward revisions to our estimates into the Q2 results, reflecting a slightly more cautious near-term view on the publicly funded segment in Poland and Romania. Margins are left unchanged across both divisions and at the group level, and our long-term assumptions remain intact. We believe the ongoing FFS mix shift across both HS and DS supports continued margin improvement and operational leverage as the network matures.
Fair value range unchanged at SEK 190-270
We leave our fair value range unchanged at SEK 190-270. The range is derived from the trading multiples of two peer groups – one with healthcare providers in developing countries and one in developed countries – alongside a DCF. The range corresponds to a '26e EV/EBITDA of 9x-12x.