* Signs of stabilisation in the market...
* ...and we are positive on the 2027 story
* Trading below its peers at 8x-7x EV/adj. EBIT for '27e-'28e
Looking like a stabilisation but too early to call a recovery
The Q3 report came in better than we expected. Sales of SEK 2,751m (vs. ABGSCe 2,596m) declined 8% y-o-y, a clear improvement from the 13% decline we had expected. Volumes continued to fall, but higher sales per consultant and a strong Norway (+21%), driven by Telecom and the Public Sector, supported sales. We also see Sweden starting to improve, with sales down 6% vs. a 10% decline in Q2'26. This is meaningful, since this market accounts for ~70% of sales, but we think it is too early to call a recovery. Denmark (7% of sales) continues to be tough, and we think it will take until late ‘27 before the market sees a pick-up in volumes. The gross margin was well above our expectations at 4.3% (vs. ABGSCe 4.1%), the highest level in several years. We think the growing share of senior specialist competence, where pricing is less up for discussion, makes the margin more resilient in a tough market. Adj. EBIT was SEK 27m, 44% above our expectations of SEK 19m. Overall, we think volumes are approaching the trough, but the recovery will be gradual.
Lifting estimates on a better outlook
We raise ‘27e-‘28e adj. EBIT by 4-3% on the back of the report. For '27e, we expect the restructuring to take full effect, and we expect sales growth of 6% (-12% in ‘26e). We think the main drivers are easier comps and gradually improving volumes.
8x-7x '27e-'28e EV/adj. EBIT
The share is trading at 8x-7x ‘27e-‘28e EV/adj. EBIT, vs. peers at 9x-7x and its 10Y average of 13x. The market remains subdued, and visibility into the timing and trajectory of the recovery is still somewhat blurry. We need more conviction in the data points and remain cautious in the near term.