We trim 2026E-28E adjusted EBITA by 1%, mainly reflecting a more cautious view on the Print & Packaging Solutions (PPS) segment.
However, we continue to expect solid momentum in Supply Chain Solutions (SCS), which we see as the key earnings driver over the coming years.
Looking ahead to 2027E-28E, we find the setup increasingly attractive, supported by healthy underlying demand in SCS and improving trends in FMCG and Fashion, both of which have weighed on performance in recent quarters.
This underpins our assumption of ~4% annual organic growth for the group. Combined with the expiry of lease agreements that could generate annual cost savings of SEK ~80-90m and operating leverage of ~11-17%, we see scope for a ~50bp margin expansion from 2026E to 7.8% in 2028E.
Given the efficiency initiatives implemented in recent years and a leaner cost base, we see upside potential to these estimates, should volumes recover more strongly than anticipated. Overall, we believe Elanders is well positioned for the coming years.
We derive a slightly lower fair value range of SEK 44-100 (46-103).