* Q2 growth and profitability much better than expected
* We remain in the top end of raised guidance
* FVR of DKK 8.0-11.0 reiterated
Solid Q2 triggering a raise to guidance
DONKEY delivered solid +19% revenue growth in Q2'26, driven by +4% fleet growth and a strong +14% improvement in revenue/bike, while rider and trip frequencies also showed healthy trends, up +9% and +6% y-o-y, respectively. EBITDA for the quarter reached DKK 21.5m, significantly above our estimate of DKK 17.0m, and showing strong early benefits from recent efficiency initiatives, proving the operating scale in DONKEY's business model.
'26e/'27e/'28e EBITDA raised by 2%/1%/1%
We extrapolate the stronger-than-expected profitability in Q2, raising '26e/'27e/'28e EBITDA by 2%/1%/1%. Although H1 trends and historical seasonality may make the FY guidance look overly conservative on an isolated basis, we are mindful of likely higher costs associated with the German rollouts in H2 as well as a likely dilution in revenue per bike in H2e. We also understand these are the company's own key guidance variables for the rest of the year. We expect FY'26 figures at the upper end of guidance, forecasting revenues of DKK 193m (vs. guidance of DKK 184m-194m), EBITDA of DKK 43m (guidance 38m-45m) and EBIT of DKK 9m (guidance DKK 4m-9m).
FVR of DKK 8.0-11.0 reiterated
We continue to see DONKEY offering attractive fundamentals (helped by a solid competitive edge with market tailwinds coupled with a solid pipeline), and forecast a revenue CAGR of 20% in '25-'28e (vs. 35% in '18-'25). With improving operating leverage, we model adj. EBITDA increasing from DKK 30m in '25 to DKK 86m in '28e and adj. EBIT reaching DKK 41m. We reiterate our fair value range to DKK 8.0-11.0/share.