* Order book at a record high ~SEK 640m...
* ...with ~SEK 225m expected to roll out in the next 12m
* Underlying business solid as recurring revenue continues to grow
Strong headline numbers
Clavister reported a strong Q2'26, with sales up 63% y-o-y. The growth was mainly driven by the NDMA contract, which we expected, but likely also by other defence deliveries. The underlying business remains solid and ARR grew 5% y-o-y in the quarter. The public sector takes longer to break into, but these customers are sticky once won, and contribute to recurring revenue. The energy sector, however, is faster to break into and therefore easier to win, and we see good potential for this end-segment to grow in the coming quarters. Adj. EBITDA came in at SEK 27m for a margin of 30% (17% in Q2'25), and adj. EBIT was also positive in the quarter at SEK 15m (-2m in Q2'25) for a margin of 17%. Order intake decreased by 25% y-o-y, but we do not read too much into this, as defence orders tend to be lumpy. The order backlog reached a record ~SEK 640m, of which ~SEK 225m is expected to be delivered over the next 12 months, giving strong revenue visibility.
Increasing our estimates
We increase our '26-'28 estimates on the back of the strong report. We now expect net sales to reach SEK 490m by '28e off the sharply higher 2026 base, with the adj. EBITDA margin reaching ~31% (18% in '25).
Working capital release in H2
Working capital tied up cash in the quarter, as deliveries on the NDMA contract ran ahead of milestone payments. We expect the WC trend to reverse in H2'26, as the cash from the NDMA contract should bring in at least SEK 60m. The tax deferrals were refinanced into a five-year facility right after the quarter, ND/EBITDA is at ~1.0x in Q3'26e, and the balance sheet looks well-positioned to fund continued growth. Clavister is now trading at 19-11x EV/adj. EBITDA for '26e-'28e, around 28% below its peer average.