* Q3E sales up ~54% y-o-y to SEK 78m, led by defence
* Adj. EBITDA SEK 26m, for a 34% margin (26% in Q3'25)
* Record SEK 642m order book underpins visibility
Growth lifts the margin
We estimate Q3 sales of SEK 78m, up ~54% y-o-y and driven again by NDMA defence deliveries. The more important point, however, is profitability. Gross margin should stay high at around 83% on the software-heavy mix, and because most operating costs are fixed, the extra defence revenue drops through to earnings. We therefore expect adj. EBITDA of SEK 26m – a 34% margin vs. 26% a year ago – and adj. EBIT of ~SEK 14m. We expect Q3 to be when scale in the model starts to show. Beneath defence growth, the civil base looks to be stabilising. ARR grew ~5% y-o-y in Q2, and we expect a similar rate in Q3. This is slower than a year ago, but the trend is holding rather than falling, helped by sticky public sector contracts and NIS2. Order intake is seasonally light in Q3 and defence orders are lumpy, so we would not read much into a soft order number. The record backlog of SEK 642m, with ~SEK 226m due within 12 months, is a better guide and already secures much of our near-term growth.
2027 is when it turns into margin
We raise estimates slightly ahead of the report. With 2026 nearly behind us, we look to 2027, when we expect sales to grow ~24% to SEK 411m as defence deliveries continue and the civil base holds. Margins should keep improving and if 2026 is where the growth arrives, 2027 is when we expect it to turn into margin.
Balance sheet improving
The shares are trading at around 18x EV/EBITDA for 2026, falling to 9x for 2028E. The reason is Clavister's move from a civil cybersecurity vendor into a defence supplier with backlog visibility. The balance sheet is now turning as well. In late October, Clavister received its first NDMA milestone payment of around SEK 65m, 25% of the development contract, which reverses the working capital build and eases the cash concern.