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BTS Group: Organic growth beat and raised guidance - ABG

BTS BThird party research14.08.2026, 07.21

This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values

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* 9% organic growth (cons 2%), adj. EBITA -5% vs cons
* 2026 EBITA guidance raised to "significantly better than 2025" (cons at +25%)
* Slight positive revisions expected (1-3%), good AI data points, stock up 5-8%

Q2 details

Sales SEK 767m (9% vs ABG 705m, 8% vs cons 712m), adj. EBITA 94m (-5% vs ABG 99m, -5% vs cons 99m), adj. EBITA margin 12.3% (ABG 14.1%, cons 13.9%). Adj. EBITA -5% y-o-y (ABG 0%, cons 0%). Organic growth 9% (ABG 1%, cons 2%).

Organic growth to remain positive ahead is a relief

Sales beat in all regions (+3-16% vs cons) with >10% organic growth in North America and Europe. Positive results from AI, both revenues (+221% y-o-y, now 10% of group sales) and improved internal efficiency. BTS raises FY guidance to “significantly higher EBITA in 2026 vs 2025” vs previous “higher” (cons +25% already). Guides for continued momentum in North America, some slowdown in Europe post a strong Q2 and return to growth in Other markets in H2 (-1% in Q2), confirming the positive organic growth trend to stay.

Guidance partly reflected in cons, stock still up on relief today

We expect consensus to make small positive changes to 2026 EBITA (+1-3%) as estimates already reflect an upgraded guidance, while the organic growth beat and guidance upgrade signalling value should be positive for the sentiment today with valuation at 9x NTM EV/EBITA. We expect the stock to trade +5-8%. Conf call CET 15.00.