Sampo: The share is still correctly priced
Sampo's Q4 result was a disappointment to the market as non-recurring items depressed the result and If’s result was soft. The Q4 report does not change the big picture, however. We revised our estimates upward slightly thanks to investment income that rose with interest levels but our view of the sum of the parts remains unchanged. The share still seems quite correctly priced and the expected return still relies mainly on dividends, which does not provide a sufficient risk/return ratio.
Sampo is the leading property and casualty insurance group in the Nordic region and a major operator in the growing digital P&C insurance market in the UK. Sampo Group has around 9 million customers, and it employs 15,000 people. The Group’s insurance revenue totalled EUR 9.1 billion in 2025 of which the Nordic market represented 75 per cent. The Group’s operations are diversified by geography, line of business, and customer group. Sampo Group operates in Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, the UK, and the Baltic countries. Its largest customer groups are private customers in the Nordics and in the UK, representing in total over 65 per cent of the Group's insurance revenue. The Group is also a leading provider of P&C insurance in Nordic commercial and industrial businesses.
Read more on company pageKey Estimate Figures12.02.2023
| 2022 | 23e | 24e | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10,726.2 | 9,585.6 | 9,983.6 |
| growth-% | 10.1 % | -10.6 % | 4.2 % |
| EBIT (adj.) | 1,725.0 | 1,747.3 | 1,819.9 |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 16.1 % | 18.2 % | 18.2 % |
| EPS (adj.) | 0.44 | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| Dividend | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.36 |
| Dividend % | 5.3 % | 5.8 % | 4.0 % |
| P/E (adj.) | 20.1 | 20.0 | 18.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.8 | 12.4 | 12.1 |
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