contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Analyst

Kasper Mellas

Nordea is a banking company. The company offers a range of financial services, aimed at both private and corporate customers, including traditional asset management, loan financing and pension savings. In addition, it also offers advice and security insurance, as well as currency management. Nordea has the largest operations in the Nordic and Baltic countries. The company was founded in 1997 and its headquarters are located in Helsinki.

A few target price updates have been released, here are some of them:  Danske Bank raises target price from approx. 16.47 → approx. 18.98 euros, recommendation remains buy. Citi Investment Research raises from 18.1 → 18.3 euros, recommendation remains buy. UBS lowers target price from approx. 18.05 → 17.85 euros, recommendation remains buy. OP Corporate Bank 17.5 → 17.2 euros, recommendation reduce → add. SB1 Markets approx. 16.5 → approx. 17 euros, recommendation neutral → buy. Goldman Sachs 15.5 → 16.75 euros, recommendation “neutral”=(?)hold remains.

Jusa Halme has recently started putting his money into Nordea. Here are the rationale and the company’s outlook:

Kasperi’s latest Nordea report is out. Target price unchanged (€17.5) and recommendation Accumulate.                   Inderes              Nordea Q4'25: Kannattavuusnäkymä säilyy erinomaisena - Inderes    Nordean vakaa tuloskehitys sai jatkoa Q4:llä. Varainhoidon uusmyynti sekä lainakysyntä kehittyivät kumpikin vahvasti, mutta varsin yllätyksettömän tulosraportin jäljiltä ennustemuutokset jäivät maltillisiksi.

The dividend will probably be structured next year so that if the 2026 EPS is, say, €1.4, then in spring 2027 they will pay 70 cents and in the autumn 30 cents/share. I’d like to see the share price gather some momentum from below €16. There would be interest to buy at the €15.xx levels.

It is already known that the dividend will not be 50/50 in the future, but will be weighted towards the spring. Based on the Capital Markets Day information, Kasper wrote in November:  In the new strategy period, Nordea will switch to a dividend paid twice a year. The first of these includes an installment paid in early autumn, amounting to 50% of the result for the first half of the year. This means that the profit distribution will be slightly more weighted towards the dividend paid in the spring, which, within the target range (60–70% dividend payout ratio), will account for about 60% of the total dividend for the financial year.  Nordea itself announced the matter as follows:   a dividend paid at 60–70 percent of the profit for the financial year a semi-annual dividend including an installment paid after the half-year report in late July or early August, based on a 50 percent share of the profit for the first half of the financial year, and a second installment paid after the Annual General Meeting (AGM)

This is exactly why it’s worth calculating the impact of the credit loss provision buffer release and share buybacks on the key figures, rather than just staring at the battery of metrics. Now, the actual figures weren’t really hidden in a big way; instead, that credit loss provision has been systematically released for years. It is, of course, another question how necessary that buffer is in the current situation, when at this rate, there’s enough of it to be released for another 10 years?

Nordea’s guidance is to normally pay 60–70% of earnings as dividends. Any excess is then distributed through share buybacks. Only the dividend to be paid in the autumn from the H1/2026 results was guided to be lower than the normal payout ratio (50%). Other observations from the financial statements include the decline in EPS being mitigated by share buybacks despite the drop in total earnings. The latest quarter even flipped to growth, although part of that growth is obviously not a testament to the strength of Nordea’s business but a result of share buybacks performed on behalf of shareholders. And as I already warned on another forum, this is not a criticism of buybacks but a wake-up call for those who only follow the numbers to also take the impact of buybacks into account. Return on equity (ROE) rose only marginally, which I consider good even though the 15% target was not yet reached. Here, too, the impact of buybacks must be considered as a reduction in the denominator. However, the return is realistically good, as the percentage figure hasn’t been improved solely by reducing the equity in the denominator through profit distribution. Equity per share has remained quite stable, considering the buybacks. Nordea is transitioning to dividends paid multiple times a year elegantly, by increasing the dividend for one year instead of lowering the transition year dividend like Nokia and Sampo did. It’s easy to make the switch when there’s plenty of cash in the coffers. The credit losses that Yle has been making a fuss about are quite well under control, and they haven’t been hidden too badly under the gradual reversal of credit loss provisions made during the COVID panic. With this performance, I’m not selling! In the hope of a dividend dip, I might even consider adding more, even though it’s already the largest position in my portfolio. Fortunately, it’s not my only portfolio, so I can accept the overweighting.

Nordea Bank

Nordea reported a much stronger than expected Q1 result. The earnings beat was largely due to non-recurring items such as lower resolution fees, changes in fair value and exchange rate effects on net interest income. Therefore, the impact on our earnings forecasts for the coming years remains moderate.

<p>Nordea reported a much stronger than expected Q1 result. The earnings beat was largely due to non-recurring items such as lower resolution fees, changes in fair value and exchange rate effects on net interest income. Therefore, the impact on our earnings forecasts for the coming years remains moderate.</p>

	2023	24e	25e
Operating income	11,743.0	12,190.2	12,006.0
growth-%	20.8 %	3.8 %	-1.5 %
EBIT (adj.)	6,515.0	6,669.0	6,322.9
EBIT-% (adj.)	55.5 %	54.7 %	52.7 %
EPS (adj.)	1.44	1.47	1.41
Dividend	0.92	0.95	0.92
Dividend %	8.2 %	5.6 %	5.4 %
P/E (adj.)	7.8	11.5	12.0
EV/EBITDA	7.0	9.3	9.4

Nordea: Business is creditable

Key Estimate Figures18.04.2024

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