Translation: Original published in Finnish on 9/23/2026 at 8:00 am EEST.

Kreate raised its guidance for already the third time this year. The upgrade was expected, but its magnitude clearly exceeded our previous forecasts. At the same time, the company announced that the CEO will be stepping down by the end of next year, which we naturally view as a loss, although the long transition period allows for a controlled handover. Our estimates for the coming years increased significantly and were mainly driven by margins, as we expect successful project execution, an increasing share of private projects, and operational leverage to support profitability in the coming years as well. Following quite significant forecast changes and an even stronger outlook, we raise our target price to EUR 38 (from EUR 30). We maintain our Accumulate recommendation.

Guidance offered a positive surprise, CEO change was a negative one

Behind Kreate's new full-year guidance are several growth drivers that are performing even stronger than we expected. According to the company, projects have progressed more rapidly than previously anticipated, and data center projects were specifically highlighted as a pillar of growth for both Kreate and KFS Finland. In addition, growth is supported by new projects won since the previous guidance update. We considered new orders to be the most likely catalyst for an upwards revision, as the company already estimated in the Q2 report that it would reach the previous revenue guidance range based solely on end-June order book.

The guidance upgrade was overshadowed by the resignation of CEO Timo Vikström, who has successfully steered the company for ten years, although he will continue in his role until the end of next year. We naturally consider this a loss for Kreate, but the exceptionally long transition period of over a year allows for a controlled handover and minimizes short-term operational risks.

Guidance above our expectations, particularly for profitability

Although our previous forecasts anticipated a third guidance upgrade (revenue of 662 MEUR, EBITA of 28 MEUR), it materialized significantly stronger than we expected. The updated guidance (revenue of 670–710 MEUR, EBITA of 32–36 MEUR) implies a revenue growth of 104–126% for the second half of the year and an EBITA margin range of ca. 5.0–6.5%. Growth is supported by the acquisition of SRV Infra completed at the turn of the year and the consolidation of KFS Finland from the beginning of April onwards, but we estimate that roughly two-thirds of the growth in the second half of the year will be organic. The organic growth is driven by a record-strong order book, which, in addition to data center construction, is broadly supported by, among other things, defense projects as well as more traditional transport infrastructure and railway construction projects.

Although the current order book is being converted into revenue at a rapid pace, we believe the company will also enter next year with an order book that is significantly stronger than in the comparison period. The volume level is further supported by the multi-year nature of several large projects. Demand related to data centers, in turn, is supported by projects that have already received investment decisions but have not yet started.

Earnings growth fulfills elevated expectations

Kreate's share has risen by more than 150% since our recommendation change in February, but in our view, the increase is justified, as our earnings forecasts for the current and coming years have roughly doubled over the same period. With our current forecasts, the company's valuation (2026-27e EV/EBIT 11-9x, P/E 13-12x) remains overall at an attractive level relative to our accepted valuation (EV/EBIT 10-12x, P/E 10-13x). In our view, more significant upside from the current level would require further evidence of the sustainability of the current earnings level, because despite good fundamentals, the continuity of the earnings level is clearly the most significant risk factor for the share following this year's step change.