Automatic translation: Originally published in Finnish 09/10/2026, 05:00 GMT. Give feedback here.

Kamux's decision to withdraw from Germany clearly raised the company's earnings estimates for the coming years, although quite substantial one-off costs dampened its impact on the company's value. Kamux's valuation now looks neutral for 2027 (P/E 10x), but it does not yet turn the risk/reward ratio positive. We reiterate our Reduce recommendation and raise our target price to EUR 1.5 (was EUR 1.4).

Kamux to exit Germany, continue in Sweden

Kamux announced yesterday that as part of its strategy update, it has decided to discontinue its operations in Germany. The country had seven stores, which we understand closed immediately. Germany has been unprofitable throughout its 11 years of operation, and losses have deepened this year. Therefore, we consider the decision logical, and we viewed it as a possible outcome in connection with the strategy update, even though CEO Kalliokoski had previously strongly advocated for continuing abroad. At the same time, Kamux stated that in addition to Finland, it will continue in Sweden, which is likewise unprofitable, and that it will communicate its updated strategy in connection with its Q3 results on November 12.

Large one-off costs from closing Germany, but clear earnings improvement

Kamux estimates that closing Germany will cause one-off costs of 12-14 MEUR. We estimate that the sell-off of the German car inventory could generate around 5-6 MEUR for Kamux, but the one-off costs will result in a negative cash flow of over 10 MEUR. Thus, discontinuing the operations is cash-flow negative for the company. Naturally, discontinuing the operations will also save from future operational losses, which we expected to be 2-3 MEUR per year. Therefore, the decision to discontinue will pay for itself in a couple of years.

For 2026, we estimate the adj. EBIT without Germany to be of around 6 MEUR. Starting from the beginning of 2027, we have removed the German operations from our estimates. Our estimates now expect an adj. EBIT level of around 11 MEUR in 2027-28. This is a significant improvement from this year's 3 MEUR. However, the larger part of this (over 4 MEUR) comes from the forecasted improvement in Finland and a good 3 MEUR from the exit from Germany.

Winding down Germany brings an extra twist to guidance

Although Kamux announced the discontinuation of its German operations, it will not yet record it as a discontinued operation. For Q3, the result in Germany will therefore be reported in the normal manner. Regarding Q4, however, the operation is practically in the winding-down phase for the entire quarter, and its operational result is practically impossible to calculate. Therefore, we have assumed that Germany's operational Q4 result is zero. This is relevant because the company guides for growing adj. EBIT, and the exit from Germany increases it. What makes the reporting method for Germany's result particularly important is that, in our view, Kamux is quite close to issuing a profit warning. With the disappearance of the German losses for Q4, we estimate this year's adj. EBIT to be 3.0 MEUR. This is still slightly below last year's (3.3 MEUR), while the company's guidance expects rising earnings. In our view, at this stage it would be clearer to guide for earnings excluding the German operations, which we expect to be 6 MEUR, compared to 7 MEUR in 2025.

Multiples look neutral for 2027

Even without Germany's losses, the earnings multiples for 2026 are high (P/E and EV/EBIT over 15x), but they fall to a moderate level (P/E and EV/EBIT 10x) in 2027. Our DCF model's value increased only marginally following the exit from Germany and stands at EUR 1.5. According to our estimates, the company's return on capital will remain below our required return. This is particularly affected by the forecasted continuation of Sweden's losses. Also considering the profit warning risk and the uncertainty related to Finland's earnings turnaround next year, we do not yet find the share's valuation attractive.