Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/30/2026 at 8:30 am EET.

Kalmar’s Q3 results were in line with our expectations, while order intake slightly exceeded our forecasts. The market situation has remained stable, and our forecast revisions are accordingly minor. Alongside the results, Kalmar also announced updated and raised financial targets ahead of next week’s CMD. A more detailed roadmap for reaching the targets will have to wait until Monday, however. In our view, the share’s valuation has already fallen to quite a low level, so we raise our recommendation to Buy (was Accumulate) and reiterate our EUR 46 target price.

Operations exactly in line with expectations, orders slightly ahead

Q3 revenue was flat year-on-year, exactly in line with our forecast. Kalmar’s adjusted EBIT of 56.4 MEUR was likewise in line with both our forecast and consensus. Order intake (458 MEUR) grew from the subdued comparison period as expected, but slightly exceeded forecasts. The beat came from Equipment (+36% y/y vs. our +27%), while Services orders remained at the comparison period’s level, in line with our expectations. According to the company, growth was supported by larger orders, which it also announced on results day.

Targets raised

Alongside its results, Kalmar announced an updated strategy and financial targets for the strategy period to 2030. It will elaborate on these at its Capital Markets Day (CMD) on November 2. The key takeaway from the update was the company’s shift in focus toward accelerating growth, which will also be supported by targeted acquisitions going forward. The company also raised both its growth and profitability targets, which surprised us, given that Kalmar still had some way to go to reach its previous targets. In our view, raising the targets and adding inorganic growth to the strategy also signal growing ambition. Our current forecasts are quite clearly below the updated targets, but we estimate that the higher targets reflect the potential impact of acquisitions. At this stage, we see no need to change our longer-term assumptions and will wait for more detailed comments on how the company plans to accelerate growth and improve margins.

Our estimates for the coming years remain practically unchanged

The company made no changes to its current-year guidance and expects its comparable EBIT margin to exceed 12.5%. The margin was 12.6% in January–September, so a normal Q4 performance would be sufficient to meet the guidance. According to the company, demand has remained stable. It expects overall demand to remain at roughly the level of previous quarters in the short term, in line with our expectations. Overall, we make only very minor revisions to our near-term estimates. We now expect an adjusted EBIT margin of 12.7% for the current year (prev. 12.8%). We expect organic earnings growth to remain solid in the coming years (2026e–28e adj. EBIT growth: 3–11% per year), supported by growth in container traffic, the company’s strong market position, and efficiency programs.

We believe the stock is undervalued

On our estimates, Kalmar’s EV/EBIT multiples for 2026 and 2027 are around 10x and 8x. The corresponding P/E ratios are around 14x and 12x. We believe the multiples are low for a high-quality company and below the levels we consider neutral for next year (EV/EBIT 11x–13x, P/E 14x–17x). The earnings growth expectations priced into the share for the coming years are consequently low (our target price implies a 2027e P/E of 15x and EV/EBIT of 11x). In our view, this partly reflects the lack of clear short-term market drivers, but we are quite confident in the conditions for longer-term earnings growth. Our DCF value (~EUR 49 per share), among other methods, also supports a strongly positive view on the share.