Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/6/2026 at 8:00 am EEST.

We reiterate our Buy recommendation and EUR 5.2 target price for Enersense. The company will publish its Q2 results on August 13 at around 8:30 am EEST. We do not assume any change in the company's demand situation, but rather that the market situation has remained good in its key market segments. However, we have made timing-related revisions to our forecasts, and we estimate that the company's revenue and earnings for the current year will be even more heavily weighted towards H2 than previously expected. In contrast, our absolute estimates for the coming years are virtually unchanged. We believe the expected return from earnings growth in the coming years is at a very attractive level. 

We estimate earnings will be heavily weighted toward H2

We have revised our Q2 operational estimates downwards, as we believe project timings are heavily weighted towards H2. We believe this is due to the weather conditions at the beginning of the year and the permitting processes for certain projects highlighted in Q1. Additionally, we believe our previous Q2 revenue estimate for Energy Transition was too high, considering the development of its order book. However, the outlook for the segment for the rest of the year is strengthened by the 30 MEUR Aquatech contract announced at the end of June.  In addition, the Group's and especially Power's full-year performance is supported by the strong order backlog at the end of Q1'26 (Group: 413 MEUR). We now estimate Enersense's Q2 revenue to have been 70.6 MEUR (was 79.6 MEUR), representing a comparable decrease of approximately 6% from the comparison period (vs. Q2'25 core business revenue of 74.8 MEUR). We estimate that lower revenue also impacted profitability and forecast the company's adjusted EBITDA to have been 2.7 MEUR (was 3.8 MEUR).

Our estimates for the coming years remain practically unchanged

Enersense has guided that its adjusted EBITDA for the current year will be 19-23 MEUR and has estimated that earnings and growth will improve especially in H2 due to project timings. We expect it to reiterate its guidance in connection with the report. Timing changes did not have a material impact on our revenue forecast for the current year (330 MEUR vs. previous 329 MEUR). The Aquatech agreement also had no material impact on our full-year forecast, as it already included an assumption of new orders. We also made only fine-tuning adjustments to our profitability assumptions, and our adjusted EBITDA forecast for this year is almost unchanged (21.2 MEUR vs. previous 21.0 MEUR). We estimate that the second half of the year will be strong for the company, providing concrete evidence of the impact of strategic measures and the Value Uplift program. However, we note that the H2-weighted nature slightly increases the risks from timing-related factors (e.g., weather) for achieving the guidance. Our estimates for the coming years are largely unchanged, and we expect rapid earnings growth to continue (2027e-28e adjusted EBIT growth of 10-24% p.a.).

Valuation is rather attractive

With our estimates, EV-based multiples for the current year (hybrid bond included as debt) are, in our opinion, moderate (2026e EV/EBIT 8x, EV/EBITDA 5x) and at the lower end of the levels we consider neutral (EV/EBIT 8x-12x, EV/EBITDA 5x-7x). Next year's multiples are already very low (2027e EV/EBIT 5x, EV/EBITDA 4x), and we see clear upside in the earnings-based valuation. We believe the valuation is weighed down, partly justifiably, by several recent non-recurring items related to structural arrangements and strategy, which have led to highly volatile reported earnings development. In our view, this has overshadowed the operational measures taken and the favorable market outlook. As the earnings turnaround progresses roughly as we expect from H2 onwards and cash flow strengthens, we see clear upside drivers for the valuation. Our view of the stock's significant upside is also supported by other methods (e.g. DCF EUR ~5.8/share).