Following Columbus’ interim report for Q3 2026 and the launch of the new ASTRA 29 strategy, both published on 5 November, we have updated our investment case.

In addition to updated financials and valuation perspectives relative to Nordic IT peers, the investment case introduces Columbus’ business and highlights the key investment reasons and risks. This update gives more weight than usual to strategy, as the new 2027 to 2029 targets replace the long-term ambitions that have framed the case since 2024.

Q3 2026 was the second consecutive quarter of growth and the first to show that the growth carries earnings. Revenue rose 6% to DKK 367m, led by Dynamics 365 at 8% on major wins in Norway. Adjusted EBITDA reached DKK 38m, a margin of 10.3% against 6.9%, with efficiency at 62% from 58%. Sweden and Denmark still declined.

Guidance for 2026 was maintained in the Q3 report after being lowered on 22 October to organic growth of 2 to 3% and an EBITDA margin of approximately 6%. Against year-to-date revenue of DKK 1,205m, this implies Q4 revenue of DKK 403 to 419m, or 5 to 9% growth against Q4 2025, so the top-line momentum is expected to continue. On earnings the implied step is smaller: year-to-date reported EBITDA of DKK 61m leaves roughly DKK 35 to 36m for Q4, a margin near 8.7%. 

The more important development is the base the company now enters its new strategy period from. Columbus delivered higher revenue on an average FTE base of 1,429 against 1,485 a year earlier, and management expects efficiency to improve further in Q4 as the affected employees leave the payroll. In our view the Q3/Q4 exit rate, rather than the approximately 6% full-year margin, is the relevant starting point for assessing ASTRA 29.

ASTRA 29 covers 2027 to 2029 and sets three financial and strategic targets: revenue of DKK 2bn, EBITDA of DKK 300m and recurring revenue at 20% of total revenue. The arithmetic is worth stating plainly. DKK 300m on DKK 2bn is a 15% EBITDA margin, which means the New Heights margin ambition has been reinstated unchanged and expressed in kroner with a new end date. The revenue ambition, by contrast, has been lowered. DKK 2bn from an expected DKK 1.62bn in 2026 implies roughly 7.4% annual growth against the 10% previously communicated. The plan therefore has a lower ceiling than its predecessor but a more realistic path.The strategic logic rests on a shift that is already visible in the market. Enterprises have scaled AI consumption faster than value realisation. In McKinsey’s surveys, 88% now use AI in at least one business function, yet the share attributing at least 5% of EBIT to AI has stood still at around 6% for two years, while rising token consumption is pushing IT operating costs up. Management’s answer is orchestration: selecting the right model for the right task at the right cost, securing interconnectivity across platforms and retaining the ability to replace a provider. Columbus intends to build that role on top of the business-critical systems it already runs, extending from ERP into warehouse, transport and manufacturing execution systems. The three must-win battles follow from this: accelerate and reprice the existing portfolio, develop agentic services that start from the business process rather than the system, and expand as operating partner with greater responsibility for running and improving customer solutions.

The commercial model is the mechanism that makes the margin target possible. With delivery compression of 20 to 40% on full programmes, hours become a weaker measure of value, and management is explicit that staying on pure time and material would hand the entire efficiency gain to the customer. Columbus signed its first Augmented Delivery contracts in Q3, combining consultants with AI agents to deliver a defined outcome at a fixed price rather than by the hour. This is the clearest new building block towards a structurally higher margin, but the volume is immaterial so far and too early to draw major conclusions from. . 

The main risk in our updated case is that the strategy was launched without a first year. No 2027 guidance accompanied ASTRA 29, so the step from approximately 6% in 2026 to 15% in 2029 has no stated first milestone. The annual report in March is the first opportunity to make the trajectory concrete, and early in a strategy period the market needs a year-one number before it pays for the destination. We also highlight that pricing pressure in Scandinavia and the lower initial margins carried by large new contracts risk capping the margin recovery rather than just delaying it, and that AI disruption and competitive intensity remain concerns until sustained growth and scaling AI use cases are demonstrated. AI cuts both ways for a consultancy, as parts of the traditional portfolio, such as integration configuration and documentation, will shrink structurally.

On valuation, Columbus trades at 0.8x EV/Sales (2026E) against Nordic IT peers at 1.2x, reflecting a margin profile of approximately 6% against a peer median of 14.6%. On the 2029 targets the gap narrows to 0.7x against 0.8x, so the revenue ambition is broadly accepted. The disagreement sits in earnings, where Columbus trades at 4.5x EV/EBITDA on the 2029 targets against a peer median of 7.2x. Applying the peer multiple to the current enterprise value implies roughly DKK 190m of EBITDA in 2029, around 60% of the DKK 300m target and a margin near 9.5%, which is close to Columbus’ own historical peak of 9% in 2024. The market is pricing a return to past best rather than convergence with the sector.

Shareholder value creation will therefore primarily be driven by whether Columbus can make the market price in the ASTRA 29 targets, and that happens directionally rather than on proof of 2029. The 2027 guidance in March is the first proof point, followed by the Q4 margin once the restructuring drops out, and visible movement in recurring revenue and the share of fixed price work.

For further insights into the Q3 2026 results and the new strategy, you can watch the event we hosted with management: https://www.inderes.dk/videos/columbus-presentation-of-interim-report-q3-2026

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Columbus for a Digital IR subscription agreement. /Michael Friis and Victor Skriver, 10/11-2026, 07:30.