Translation: Original published in Finnish on 02/26/2026 at 08:26 am EET

The performance of the Finnish businesses in 2025 was clearly below the previous year, and the new guidance likely means that the strong level of 2024 will not be reached this year either. At the same time, the profitability of the Foodhills pea business acquired from Sweden is currently unprofitable, and the first signs of a turnaround can only be assessed after the harvest season, i.e., at the end of the year. The new strategy will be presented on Tuesday, February 17 (link), which could clarify guidelines for the future. We reiterate our Reduce recommendation and lower our target price to EUR 13 (previously EUR 13.50).

The year ended with an acquisition and production challenges

Q4 earnings were, as expected, weaker than the comparison period, as Apetit had already issued a profit warning in December. Comparable EBIT, excluding the non-recurring impact of the Foodhills acquisition, was 0.8 MEUR (Q4’24: 2.4 MEUR). Food Solutions' earnings suffered from a poor pea harvest, a decline in the efficiency of seasonal production at the end of the year, and partly from the shift of production to 2026. Earnings in Oilseed Products also remained weak, partly due to a weaker sales mix. The reported operating result for Q4 was 9 MEUR, which was influenced by, e.g., a positive entry of 8.3 MEUR related to the Foodhills acquisition's purchase price being below book value. Revenue increased by 1% to 43 MEUR and was below our forecast for both segments (we expected total growth of 6%). Apetit's net debt at the end of the period was 15.7 MEUR, which was higher than our 5 MEUR estimate. The dividend proposal was EUR 0.70 per share, exceeding our estimate (EUR 0.65). The dividend corresponds to 49% of the reported net income but clearly exceeds the comparable net income.

In 2026, modest earnings growth in Finland, losses in Sweden expected

Apetit's guidance for 2026 was weaker than our expectations, as the company estimates EBIT to decrease relative to the comparable 2025 level (5.9 MEUR excluding the one-off impact of the Foodhills acquisition). The guidance was justified by the negative result of the acquired Foodhills. Improving the earnings of Swedish pea producer Foodhills would require Apetit to enhance the operational efficiency of the cultivation-processing chain. The first signs of this could therefore be seen at the earliest after the next harvest season, i.e., from the end of 2026 onwards. Our current estimates include the assumption of a positive EBITDA turnaround for Foodhills in 2027. For the old businesses, we estimate EBIT to strengthen to 7.5 MEUR in 2026, but on the other hand, Foodhills' earnings impact of -2.4 MEUR weighs on the total EBIT, bringing it to 5.1 MEUR. We interpreted that the shift in seasonal production to 2026 will not have a significant positive earnings impact on Food Solutions at the beginning of the year, but otherwise, we estimate that the Finnish operations have reasonably good conditions to improve their earnings level during 2026.

Current earnings are insufficient, and the turnaround faces uncertainty

Apetit's share valuation is high on an earnings basis with 2026 estimates (EV/EBIT: 17x, P/E: 24x) due to, ae.g., the unprofitability of the acquired Foodhills. If Foodhills' EBITDA turned positive, as we have assumed in our 2027 estimates, the valuation could decrease closer to a fair level (EV/EBIT: 12x). Even this valuation level would not, in our opinion, be very affordable, but would require a clearly upward earnings development over a longer period. Visibility into Foodhills' earnings turnaround is dim, considering the company's prolonged unprofitability and the challenges typically associated with international acquisitions. For this reason, we believe the stock's risk/reward ratio is weak. Apetit's new growth-oriented strategy is still in its early stages of development, and more detailed guidelines and progress are likely to be provided soon, which could potentially clarify the earnings outlook and reduce the risk level.