Translation: Original published in Finnish on 04/09/2026 at 07:30 am EEST

We slightly lowered our estimates due to the likely acceleration of inflation, but we still believe the company will gradually improve its earnings in 2026-28. We reiterate our Reduce recommendation and EUR 4.0 target price, as we believe the stock's valuation is neutral (e.g., 2026 P/E 11x) and growth potential is limited.

Leading producer and distributor of wines and spirits in the Nordic countries

Anora was born in September 2021 from the Finnish Altia and Norwegian Arcus, who both were producers, importers and distributors of spirits and wines. In June 2022, Anora acquired the leading Danish wine company Globus Wine. Anora is the largest player in the Nordic spirits market and the second largest in the wine market. The company has both own brands and partner brands that it distributes. The company has strong expertise and a good market share, especially in the alcohol monopoly chains in Finland, Sweden, and Norway.

Targets at a realistic level

The market for alcoholic beverages in the Nordic countries has historically been very stable. Anora’s goal is to grow faster than the market. Current market estimates expect roughly zero growth in the Nordics, and the company's own assumptions anticipate market contraction in the coming years. As Anora’s market position is already strong, it is difficult to win significant market shares in monopoly markets, and there are no clear signs of accelerating international growth. We therefore feel that the organic growth outlook for the company is modest. We, therefore, expect very stable revenue development. In terms of earnings, Anora aims for an annual adjusted EBITDA growth of 6-7%. In absolute terms, this means a target of 85-90 MEUR in 2028. We estimate that this will be achieved mainly through efficiency measures, as the revenue growth prospects are limited. We expect an upward earnings trend, but earnings growth and level will still fall short of targets. The adjusted EBITDA for 2028 is 79 MEUR in our estimates.

Inflationary pressures decreased this year's estimate

Anora guides adjusted EBITDA of 74-79 MEUR for 2026. This is in line with the financial targets. In this report, we cut our earnings estimate for the current year by 1.5 MEUR due to inflationary pressures caused by the war in Iran. For Anora, this is particularly evident in logistics and packaging costs (bottles). Due to rigid pricing, we believe Anora's profitability will suffer as inflation accelerates. Our adjusted EBITDA estimate is now at the bottom end of the guidance (74 MEUR).

Value creation still seems difficult

Although we believe Anora can improve its profitability, the company's return on capital remains roughly at the level of our required return in our forecasts. We estimate the company's investment needs to be small, and it continues to aim at freeing up working capital, which is only realized to a limited extent in our estimates. The growth outlook for the longer term is also subdued, as we do not believe there is any growth in the alcohol market in sight. In an environment of flat or decreasing volumes, the company must continuously improve its efficiency just to compensate for normal cost inflation. Therefore, after the earnings improvement in the coming years, we estimate earnings and cash flow to remain at the same levels in 2028-2034.

Valuation is neutral

Anora's 2026 P/E 11x is at the level of our acceptable multiples (10-12x). Anora's expected return is slightly below our required return, with dividends playing a significant role. Since we feel sustainable earnings growth is absent, the dividend yield alone is not enough to cover our required return. A modest return on capital also weakens the risk/reward ratio in our view. The value of our DCF model is EUR 4.1 per share.