Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/04/2026 at 08:00 am EET

Aiforia's share price has fallen clearly since the H1 report, even though the company's outlook has remained unchanged. The news flow this fall has been in line with our estimates, so we are not making any changes to them in connection with this update. We raise our recommendation to Accumulate (was Reduce) and revise our target price to EUR 1.05 (was EUR 1.1) as a result of the increase in the required return. Following the share price decline, the risk/reward ratio has improved and, in our view, warrants a positive recommendation.

Partner network strengthened in the US

In October, Aiforia signed a commercial agreement with PathAI, which was acquired by Roche earlier this year, making the company's AI models available through the AISight image management system (IMS) marketplace. Shortly after this, Agilent announced the acquisition of Aiforia's partner Proscia at an EV/S multiple of around 13x. We have previously commented on the transaction and industry consolidation here.

Two of Aiforia's most important IMS partners for the US are thus now owned by large diagnostics companies. In our view, the situation involves both opportunities and risks. Large enterprises' sales and distribution networks can accelerate the spread of platforms and expand the customer base for whom Aiforia's algorithms are available through integration. On the other hand, the partnerships are not exclusive, and platform owners may have a reason to favor their own algorithms over time. We consider the risk to be moderate for now. We view Aiforia as a potential acquisition target as industry consolidation progresses. The company will provide more information on its markets at an investor webinar on November 17.

Estimates unchanged, proof of growth still ahead

We keep our estimates unchanged. We expect revenue for the current year to decrease by 25% to 2.7 MEUR as a result of a sluggish H1. For the rest of the year, the key and difficult-to-forecast factor is the revenue resulting from the potential realization of the order book. Our H2 estimate includes the assumption that approximately 1 MEUR of the company's 3.5 MEUR order book will be recognized as revenue. For next year, we estimate revenue to grow by 75% to 4.6 MEUR and EBIT to improve to -10.4 MEUR (2026e: -13.2 MEUR). Cash burn remains high, and we estimate that financing in the coming years will rely primarily on the EIB's 20 MEUR loan. The first tranche of the loan is likely to be drawn down in the near future. Drawing down subsequent tranches requires achieving interim milestones. With our current forecasts, the loan will not quite be sufficient to cover the capital needs of the coming years, thus making a share issue reasonably likely within a few-year horizon, in our view.

The share price decline has improved the risk/reward ratio

Based on our estimates, the share trades at an EV/S multiple of around 13x for 2026 and 10x for 2027. The multiples are high in absolute terms and require strong and long-term growth. Visibility into revenue growth is limited, so the forecast risk is also high. Earnings multiples are negative for the coming years, so the valuation relies on long-term scenarios. The baseline scenario in our DCF model gives the share a value of around EUR 1.1, and the range of scenarios is wide at around EUR 0.1-1.7 per share. We moderately raise our required return based on the rise in interest rates during the fall, which has a slight negative impact on the DCF model. The Proscia transaction further reinforces our view that major industry players want to own the entire workflow. Thus, the acquisition remains a positive option for an Aiforia investor. However, we still find that the critical factor for the investment case is the initiation of growth and its long-term maintenance.