contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


modular-finance-ir-consensus-coffee-stain-consensus-estimates-q3-20252026

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Coffee Stain Group brings together Scandinavian game developers and publishers with a portfolio of community-driven games primarily for PC and console. The company has built titles such as Goat Simulator, Satisfactory, Deep Rock Galactic, Valheim, Teardown and Welcome to Bloxburg. The group consists of several game studios, including Coffee Stain, Ghost Ship and Tuxedo Labs. The head office is located in Karlstad.

Information surfaced on Discord that Tuxedo Labs, the team responsible for Teardown, has started a new project, meaning there is more in the pipeline from the team that developed Teardown. The portfolio is evolving, not just milking old titles. At the same time, I looked into how extensive Coffee Stain’s “grapevine” is. This is indicative, as I didn’t investigate all channels and some players are likely present on all of them. For example, when the next season of Deep Rock Galactic starts (very soon), information travels quite well through these “advertising channels” almost for free.     Game Steam Followers Discord Reddit     Valheim 509k 153k 232k   Fellowship 71k 122k 24k   Satisfactory 400k 247k 284k   Goat Simulator 27k - 13k   Teardown 213k - 28k   Deep Rock Galactic 2794k 630k 416k    Looking at the table, if one tries to outline the potential success for Rogue Core, using the Deep Rock Galactic name helped at least the spin-off game DRG: Survivor achieve decent sales. The game launched in early access in February 2024 with slightly fewer Steam followers than Rogue Core has now, selling a million copies in its first month.   Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor sales.

Redeye initiated coverage. Base case SEK 27                    redeye.se              Coffee Stain Group: A quality brew    Redeye initiates coverage of Coffee Stain Group, a Swedish game development company recognised for its long-lived and innovative indie games. While the company faced a limited release pipeline alongs

Coffee Stain’s former parent company Embracer was a textbook example of those suffering from the gaming industry downturn: a massive catalog of AA games that didn’t end up selling very well. In recent years, game sales have become even more concentrated on top titles, and players are playing the same games for longer, generally speaking. While a few indie games (Hollow Knight comes to mind first) are super successful, the vast majority of games there too end up in the darkness of Steam’s digital basement. I can’t say when the sluggishness in the gaming sector will end. For now, the trend seems to be concentrated sales and the strengthening of the “winner-takes-all” effect, even as games continue to be released in record numbers.  This admittedly makes Coffee Stain an exception in a good way. The core of its game portfolio has already proven its quality and potential as long-lived IPs.

Mikko Mäkinen has written on his blog about why he bought the stock                   Sijoitustieto.fi              Mikko Mäkinen - Daytraderin kovimmat tuotot ja julmimmat takaiskut    mskomu wrote: | Ehkä Suomen kuuluisin treidaaja Mikko Mäkinen päivittää omia ja Nomad Investin kuulumisia foorumiblogissaan.                             Highlights: exceptionally high-quality games with an AA budget, Steam ratings for top products at 93-96/100. Affordable valuation and a different approach to monetization compared to the mainstream. My own thoughts: I’m looking forward to the Q3 report! Valheim 1.0 should boost the figures, as the game has a huge following.

Perhaps for the first time in its life, Gemini is right. AAA doesn’t sell in a recession, but high-quality AA/Indie games will find their audience. Whether Coffee Stain is capable of creating something new and revolutionary, we don’t know, but I would say that Coffee Stain has about a 1000% better chance of success than its old parent company. Sales of Emppu’s (Embracer’s) eurojank IP trash have already suffered, as players crave experiences and something actually fun and new. Coffee Stain is, of course, competing with other Swedes, and last year’s biggest surprises and the brand new game genre “friendslop” are completely dominated by the Swedes. The games were, however, developed in the same cities where Coffee Stain operates, but by others.  If the story doesn’t take flight and the coffee spills on the floor, a management buyout is very possible in a couple of years; otherwise, I don’t believe in an acquisition, nor are there many buyers in the market right now as everyone has their own challenges. If Emppu continues its floundering, it will be sold, provided the price drops enough and more bad studios are closed.

Is most of the selling pressure the stock is experiencing presumably technical selling pressure caused by the spinoff from funds and ETFs? Has anyone tried to estimate how many shares are still left to be sold?  Why do you believe Indie/AA games suffer the most? Do you believe that Coffee Stain, despite its prominent portfolio, is among these victims? What is your view on the duration of this recession, or do you believe it is a more permanent structural change? Gemini predicted AAA games to be the biggest losers and forecasted a veritable renaissance for high-quality AA games    Gaming industry recession Financially and structurally, the AAA game market (large giant-budget games) suffers the most from the current recession and structural change in the gaming market. While all sectors have their own challenges, the AAA sector has drifted into a situation where its traditional business model is broken. Below is a breakdown of how the recession hits different sectors: 1. AAA games: The biggest loser (Structural crisis) AAA games (e.g., Call of Duty, Assassin’s Creed, Sony exclusives) are in the most trouble because their risk level has become unsustainable.   Cost crisis: The development of a single top-tier game now costs $200–400 million (plus marketing). For such a game to break even, it must sell millions of copies at full price immediately upon release.   “All or nothing” risk: If a massive investment flops (as happened with games like Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League or Concord), it can bring down the entire studio or lead to layoffs for hundreds of people. There is no longer any room for failure.   Lack of innovation: Because the risks are so high, publishers do not dare to try anything new. Only safe sequels and remakes are made, which bores players and further lowers sales.   Limited player time: AAA games often try to be “live service” offerings that take up all of a player’s free time. However, players do not have time for ten different giant games, causing new contenders to die in the market immediately.   2. Indie games: Suffering from oversupply (Visibility crisis) Small, independent game studios (Indie) may actually be doing better than AAA studios in relation to invested capital, but they have one massive problem:   Drowning in the masses: Tools (such as Unity, Unreal, AI) have made game development easier. Tens of thousands of games are released on Steam every year. Even a good game can go completely unnoticed because there is no marketing budget.   Funding drying up: Investors are more cautious. Before, it was easier to get money for a promising idea; now, a nearly finished product or a strong community is required before funding is granted.   3. AA games: Potential winner (Renaissance) AA games (“Double-A”) are mid-budget games that do not compete on the cost of graphics but often on gameplay or story (e.g., Remedy, Larian Studios, many Japanese RPGs).   Flexibility: They can be made for $20–50 million. If the game sells “only” a million copies, it is a hit, whereas for a AAA game, that would be a catastrophe.   Creative freedom: AA games can take risks that AAA does not dare to, yet they are higher quality than basic indies. Many players have moved to these games after AAA disappointments (examples being Baldur’s Gate 3 or Palworld, which in a way sit in this middle ground or at the high end of the indie field).   Summary The AAA sector suffers the most because its “grow or die” model has hit a wall. Players no longer agree to pay 80 euros for unfinished games, and studios can no longer turn a profit with old sales figures as costs spiral out of control.    Coffee stain Coffee Stain’s departure from Embracer Group is one of the most followed structural changes in the gaming industry. The spinoff was officially realized in December 2025, and the company is now an independent public company (listed on Stockholm’s Nasdaq First North list). Here is an analysis of the situation and my assessment of how the spinoff affects the share price development in the short and long term.  1. Immediate effect of the spinoff on the price (Late 2025) The spinoff was carried out as a so-called Lex ASEA dividend: Embracer shareholders received one Coffee Stain share for every Embracer share they owned.   Technical decline: As expected, Embracer’s (now renamed Fellowship Entertainment) share price fell significantly (about 30%) immediately after the spinoff. This is not due to the company being bad, but because value “detached” from the parent company into the new company.   Initial selling pressure: The start of the new listing (ticker: COFFEE B) in January 2026 has been challenging. Many large funds and index investors who owned Embracer may sell Coffee Stain shares automatically because it is too small a company for their investment strategy or it is listed on the “wrong” list (First North vs. main list).   2. Why is Coffee Stain attractive as an independent? Although early price volatility is high, the spinoff is seen among investors as an opportunity to “clean up” the company’s profile.   Unlocking valuation multiples: Under Embracer, Coffee Stain suffered from the parent company’s debt problems and negative reputation. As an independent company, its strong cash flow (based on hit games like Satisfactory and Valheim) will be better highlighted.   Focused story: Investors like “clean” companies. Coffee Stain is now a clear AA and indie game house with high margins. It no longer tries to finance the loss-making AAA projects of other studios.   3. Estimate of share price development in 2026 I believe the price development will follow a frequently seen spinoff pattern (cf. Mandatum or Kalmar in Finland):   Phase 1 (1–3 months): Downward pressure. Sales by passive investors keep the price low, even if the company’s figures are good.   Phase 2 (3–9 months): Stabilization. The market begins to price the company according to its own merits, not Embracer’s history. At this stage, the first independent interim reports are critical.   Phase 3 (12+ months): Rise in valuation level. If Coffee Stain can demonstrate that it is capable of finding new “Valheims” or maintaining revenues from games like Deep Rock Galactic, its stock can rise to significantly higher multiples than its parent company.    In summary: In the short term, the spinoff has caused a price drop and uncertainty, but it releases Coffee Stain’s potential. It is now a “small and feisty” player that is a much more attractive acquisition target than it was as part of the massive Embracer empire.    Edit. Do the gaming experts on the forum have any insight into how attractive this is as an acquisition target?

Thanks for the great thread opening and the discussions! I did some homework myself by reading Coffee Stain’s listing prospectus, among other things. My current take on the company: Major owner  As I understand it, Lars isn’t a malicious major owner, but his past performance in Embracer’s debt-driven “move fast and break things” growth and the collapse of the empire doesn’t inspire confidence. Indie / AA games  This specific segment of the market is suffering the most from the gaming recession. Rovio was a similar case on the stock exchange, where the cash flow from Angry Birds slowly faded, and investors expected growth from new games backed by a solid cash position. Investors were saved thanks to an acquisition offer, but the company’s development since then has followed the path that is statistically most likely: old hit games slowly decline, while new ones fail to succeed commercially. Impressive core portfolio  Even if the games are AA or just “memes,” the core portfolio has sold well historically. In the gaming market, a good rule of thumb is that evergreen games don’t really age once they’ve found their audience. In addition, the company has a strong track record of making good games.  See e.g. Goat Simulator:  Or Deep Galactic:  Stock valuation  Well… the market cap is around 5 billion SEK and net cash is over 200 million. The company’s sales are around one billion SEK, and profitability could be somewhere in the 30-50% range over time. @Housumies has already crunched the numbers well above, and I have nothing to add to that. Is an EV/FCF of, say, 12.5x really that bad? On the other hand, it’s not like an EV/FCF of “10x” or “8x,” which are often the rule-of-thumb multiples when growth is nowhere to be seen and the top line is slowly melting away…

Coffee Stain Group

Estimates compiled by Modular Finance on behalf of Coffee Stain.Number of contributors: 7 (all of which have been updated or confirmed before the report)KPI (MSEK, unless otherwise specified...

<div class="mfn-body"><p>Estimates compiled by Modular Finance on behalf of Coffee Stain.</p><p>Number of contributors: 7 (all of which have been updated or confirmed before the report)</p><table><tbody><tr><td class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid" width="66.4%" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><strong>KPI (MSEK, unless otherwise specified)</strong></td><td class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="right"><strong>Q3 25/26E</strong></td></tr><tr><td class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid" width="66.4%" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Net sales</td><td class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="right">281</td></tr><tr><td class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid" width="66.4%" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Organic growth (%)</td><td class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="right">-23.40</td></tr><tr><td class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid" width="66.4%" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Cash EBIT</td><td class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="right">115</td></tr><tr><td class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid" width="66.4%" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Cash EBIT margin (%)</td><td class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="right">43.16</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Coffee Stain’s Q3 report will be released on Wednesday 4 February 2026 at 8:00 CET.</p></div><div class="mfn-footer mfn-attachment mfn-attachment-general"><p><strong class="mfn-heading-1">Attachments</strong><br><a rel="noopener" href="https://storage.mfn.se/f89a221a-6bbe-4ae9-a74e-0781297a0611/coffee-stain-consensus-estimates-q3-2025-2026.pdf" class="mfn-generated mfn-primary">Coffee Stain – Consensus estimates Q3 2025/2026</a></p></div>

KPI (MSEK, unless otherwise specified)	Q3 25/26E
Net sales	281
Organic growth (%)	-23.40
Cash EBIT	115
Cash EBIT margin (%)	43.16