contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  createdAt
  changedAt
  isPremium
  authors {
    __typename
    name
    pageUrl
    id
  }
  companies {
    name
    id
  }
  tags {
    name
    id
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
      researchContentUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


dnb-carnegie-access-waystream-new-financial-targets-and-back-to-profitability

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

changedAt

Waystream Group operates in the telecommunications industry. The company offers switches and routers adapted for the fiber market as well as associated peripherals, technical support, training and consulting. The company's customer base is metropolitan networks, operators and property companies that own and operate their own fiber networks in the Nordics and Central Europe. The majority of production takes place in Sweden and the company has its headquarters in Kista.

Waystream received a 20 million kronor order from Telenor Finland, i.e., DNA. It is likely one of the largest single orders in Waystream’s history. Deals with Telia, on the other hand, have been sluggish, which is also reflected in the share price (YTD -43%). Having burned money on Nokia, it has certainly become clear that achieving pricing power in this industry is quite difficult.

Waystream published its Q3 interim report yesterday, October 19, 2023 [link]. The company’s share price is now approximately 20 SEK.

If expectations can be estimated based on yesterday’s closing price (41.7 SEK), they were likely very significantly higher than the actual outcome. In my modeling, the quarterly VWAP share price (Volume weighted average price) has recently hit the linear curve f(x) = 2.15 * x - 24.51 fairly well, where x is the weighted average revenue of the two most recent quarters, such that the latest quarter is weighted 85% and the second latest 15%. Q2/23 revenue was 24.555 MSEK. Thus x = 0.85 * 24.555 + 0.15 * 30.4 = 25.43175. f(25.43175) = 2.15 * 25.43175 - 24.51 = 30.2. If the upcoming (Q3) quarter’s VWAP share price were 30.2, it would fall approximately on the model’s linear trendline. However, historically, when x has been around 25, the quarterly VWAP has been clearly below the trendline. For example, in quarter 22/Q2 (x,y) = (25.21, 24.69) (See the modeling table and graph). It is worth noting that the modeling is straightforward and simplified, and is based solely on revenue and the volume-weighted average share price. It does not take future outlooks into account at all, for instance. I started following and researching the stock on June 20th. However, I have not bought the stock so far. If the share price were to fall closer to the 20 SEK level, and if the company were to issue announcements regarding potential contracts with Telia, I might analyze the stock in more detail. For now, I am just keeping it on my watchlist.

Having followed the telecom market for years, I can assure you that it’s hard to find any slack in this market. I’m even a bit surprised by a Swedish company like this. Margins are notoriously thin, and international competition is fierce. Staying ahead in R&D costs a fortune. Additionally, in fiber optic networks, there are large and established players that major customers prefer: Cisco, Arista, Huawei, HPE, Nokia, Ciena, Juniper, etc. I’m skeptical. A company like this could end up as an acquisition target, but in recent years, it’s mostly been small companies with new technical innovations that have been acquired. Does Waystream have those? I’m old-fashioned, so I’m staying away from this based on this information. For those who love a wild ride, this might be a decent choice.

TIKR’s data includes one analyst, likely Redeye, and their forecast looked like this.

https://mfn.se/cis/a/waystream-group/waystream-group-ab-delarsrapport-januari-juni-2023-ed6ca2f8 Revenue down 15%. Result turned negative.  Does anyone know what the expectations were?

I attempted to analyze the historical relationship between the target company’s (Waystream) share price and revenue. Below is the data tabulated by quarter:  l: Quarterly revenue (MSEK) x: Weighted average revenue from the two previous quarters (Weighting: 85% previous quarter, 15% the quarter before that). y: Average share price (Volume Weighted Average Price VWAP) for the quarter (SEK).      t l x y     23/Q2  33.03 49.67   23/Q1 30.4 46.21 78.27   22/Q4 47.9 35.45 51.20   22/Q3 36.6 28.36 29.28   22/Q2 28.9 25.21 24.69   22/Q1 25.3 23.91 23.31   21/Q4 24.7 20.41 25.84   21/Q3 19.4 25.35 26.21   21/Q2 26.1 17.94 20.35   21/Q1 21.1  15.16    When the (x,y) points are plotted in a coordinate system, it is observed that they fall quite well on or near a linear trendline.  Data Sources:  [1] Revenue: Interim report January-March 2023  [2] Share price: Historical price data - Nasdaq

Waystream Group

DNB Carnegie has published a new commissioned research report on Waystream.To access the full report and subscribe to future updates, visit https://access.dnbcarnegie.com/companies/1413Information...

<div class="mfn-preamble"><p><strong>DNB Carnegie has published a new commissioned research report on Waystream.</strong></p></div><div class="mfn-body"><p>To access the full report and subscribe to future updates, visit <a href="https://access.dnbcarnegie.com/companies/1413" rel="noopener">https://access.dnbcarnegie.com/companies/1413</a></p></div><div class="mfn-footer mfn-6fcd5977fc3f"><p><strong class="mfn-heading-1">Information</strong><br>This is a press release from DNB Carnegie. For information about DNB Carnegie commissioned research, see <a href="https://access.dnbcarnegie.com/" rel="noopener">https://access.dnbcarnegie.com/</a>, or contact our commissioned research team at <a href="mailto:cr@carnegie.se" rel="noopener">cr@carnegie.se</a>.</p></div><div class="mfn-footer mfn-about mfn-f597257b14ff"><p><strong class="mfn-heading-1">About Us</strong><br>DNB Carnegie is the leading and independent Nordic investment and private bank. Our operations within Corporate Finance, Securities and Research, Private Banking and Wealth Management are among the market leaders within their respective sectors. Together, they build an unbeatable combination of integrated knowledge, guiding our clients towards better business. DNB Carnegie operates in six countries and has more than 800 employees.</p></div>