The AI boom is sucking imports into the US at a record pace
Summary
- The US trade deficit decreased by 0.7% in September to USD 105.0bn, with imports reaching a record USD 426.6bn, driven by capital goods and AI-related products.
- Imports negatively impacted Q3 GDP growth by 2.6 percentage points, although the economy still grew by 3.4% annualized, marking four consecutive quarters without foreign trade support.
- Exports increased by 1.9% to USD 321.5bn, with capital goods and food exports reaching new highs, while service imports and exports also hit record levels due to increased tourism.
- Supply chain disruptions persist due to Middle East conflicts, with delivery times lengthening and potential upward pressure on consumer prices as companies have yet to pass on increased costs.
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Automatic translation: Originally published in Finnish 05/11/2026, 05:42 GMT. Give feedback here.
The US trade deficit shrank by 0.7% in September to USD 105.0bn, which was a smaller-than-expected figure. Imports grew by 1.2% to a record USD 426.6bn, and capital goods imports rose to an all-time high of USD 158bn. Computers, peripherals, and semiconductors accounted for an estimated ~61% of the deficit. Less than two years ago, the US imported around USD 20 billion worth of these products per month, compared to USD 87 billion in September. AI investments are therefore boosting the US economy, but a large share of their value added is generated abroad. Adjusted for inflation, the goods trade deficit actually grew by 3.0% to USD 119.5bn.
Imports also lopped 2.6 percentage points off Q3 GDP growth. This is the most since early 2025, when companies front-loaded their orders due to tariffs. The economy still grew by 3.4% annualized. Foreign trade has not supported growth for four consecutive quarters. Despite Trump's tariffs, the US goods trade deficit with Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, and South Korea rose to a record.
Exports, meanwhile, grew by 1.9% to USD 321.5bn. Capital goods exports rose to an all-time high, driven by computers and civil aircraft. Food exports were the highest since June 2022, thanks to soybeans. Both service imports and exports rose to record levels as tourism increased.
The Middle East conflict continues to weigh on supply chains. In the ISM services sector indices, delivery times lengthened clearly in October, and the supplier deliveries index rose from 53.2 to 56.7. Deliveries have slowed for 23 consecutive months. According to the survey, many companies have not yet passed on increased fuel and tariff costs to their prices, meaning further upward pressure on consumer prices is on the way. The services Purchasing Managers' Index fell from 54.9 to 54.5, but still points to growth.
In Tuesday's midterm elections, Republicans lost their majority in Congress to the Democrats. The defeat was influenced by tariffs, the Iran war fueling inflation, and opposition to data center construction. AI skeptics also performed well in the gubernatorial elections, which casts a question mark over the continuation of the investment boom. Wall Street rose following Tuesday's election results, but at the same time, data center shares fell amid fears of tighter regulation.
