Automatic translation: Originally published in Finnish 06/09/2026, 06:00 GMT. Give feedback here.

This blog series reflects on life in the stock market from a company's perspective

What are the most difficult aspects of life as a listed company? Providing earnings guidance to the market easily ranks among the top for me. The topic is strictly regulated and the responsibility is immense, yet at the same time, there is no single universal model or instruction. The price of mistakes can be high.

During my 12 years working as an equity analyst, I was strongly of the opinion that listed companies should preferably guide their financial performance for the financial year with a range for both revenue and earnings. This is the most unambiguous and clearest way to manage short-term market expectations and increase transparency for investors. And naturally, it is pleasing for an analyst.

However, moving to the other side of the table into the role of CEO of a listed company has brought a new perspective. Providing guidance that is as precise as possible certainly serves investors, but is it the most viable concept in terms of long-term business management and focus? Would it simply be better to provide very broad guidance or no guidance at all, as, for example, Gofore has done in Finland? I fully understand the companies that have chosen the opposite extreme. Let me share an example that made me ponder this issue.

Heading into 2025, Inderes gave the following guidance: revenue will increase from the previous year, and the adjusted EBITA-% will improve from 11.6% in the comparison period. In the autumn, when examining the order books for project sales towards the end of the year, it began to look like crossing the profitability threshold was no longer likely unless a temporary handbrake was pulled on costs and growth investments. Let's push all kickable costs into January. That wouldn't be a difficult operation either: ten thousand here and there, and we are safely above 11.6%. The price of this operation would, of course, be that we would operationally start doing the exact opposite of what we just stated in our recently launched strategy that we would do. Drifting into such a tail-wags-the-dog scenario is, in my opinion, what listed companies should avoid.

For a moment, I wondered what it would be like to be an unlisted company. I would sign off on a marginal revision to the financial year's rolling estimate with the CFO for the board, and I wouldn't have to bother my head with this. But we had painted ourselves into this corner with the guidance set at the beginning of the year, and it is completely pointless to blame the stock market or any outside party. The rules are entirely clear, and the wording of the guidance given at the beginning of the year was our own choice. And if the outlook weakens, investors have the right to hear about it. In the autumn, we issued a profit warning and operationally kept our plans for the rest of the year unchanged. The final outcome for the financial year was as follows: 4% revenue growth and an adjusted EBITA-% of 11.4%. Profitability thus fell 0.2 pp below the original benchmark, which amounts to around 50 thousand euros.

However, the blow to confidence caused by a profit warning, even a small one, is real. It also has a potentially heavy price tag for the company if investor sentiment is already sour. Everyone remembers the profit warning; very few actually care how small the margin was.

Every listed company must find a guidance model that suits it, taking into account the predictability of its business model and its development stage. You can also choose not to provide guidance, but you still cannot escape the obligation to issue a profit warning. A warning must be issued if market expectations appear to be at the wrong level.

A communication challenge is also that investors' focus should be directed further than the current financial year. Discipline in short-term actions is absolutely critical, but overemphasizing a single financial year internally and externally easily leads to a downward spiral of short-termism. Credible communication of the long-term strategy to investors, for example through regular capital markets days, is emphasized, but we must recognize that in the market, short-term disappointments often undermine the credibility of that very long-term strategy. The spiral also works in the other direction, and when the company has the market's trust, investors tolerate quarterly disappointments better.

Heading into 2026, Inderes provided guidance with a relatively broad profitability range of 3 percentage points. The broad range has felt more viable, but we will certainly continue to have an intensive discussion on the subject with the board every year. I believe that every listed company needs to make a few iterations to find a model that suits it best, serving both the needs of investors and business management. Ultimately, the interests of both are completely aligned.