Talenom Q3'26 preview: Spain is likely to drive growth while Finland carries earnings
Summary
- Talenom's Q3 revenue is expected to grow by 6.0% year-on-year to 26.0 MEUR, driven by acquisitions in Spain, while Finland's core business shows moderate growth despite market challenges.
- Adjusted EBIT is anticipated to remain at 1.4 MEUR, with Finland contributing significantly to earnings, although profitability may weaken due to increased fixed costs and competitive pressures.
- Spain's revenue growth is strong, but operational profitability remains weak due to integration costs, while Sweden's revenue declines, though EBITDA recovery is expected due to previous adjustments.
- Talenom is likely to reiterate its current year guidance, with potential adjustments narrowing revenue and EBITDA estimates; focus remains on Sweden's turnaround and cash flow management to address leverage concerns.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/20/2026 at 08:04 am EEST
| Estimates | Q3'25 | Q3'26 | Q3'26e | Q3'26e | 2026e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEUR / EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Inderes |
| Revenue | 24.6 | 26.0 | 112.7 | ||
| EBITDA | 4.8 | 4.9 | 19.8 | ||
| EBIT | 1.4 | 1.4 | 6.0 | ||
| EPS (adj.) | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | ||
| Revenue growth-% | -15.6 % | 6.0 % | 4.7 % | ||
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 5.8 % | 5.5 % | 5.3 % |
Source: Inderes
Talenom will publish its Q3 report on Thursday, October 22. The company's earnings release can be followed here at 10:00 am EEST. We expect the company's revenue to have grown, driven by acquisitions in Spain, and EBIT to have remained at the level of the comparison period, supported by strong momentum in Finland. In the report, we will particularly monitor the progress of the profitability turnaround in Sweden and the smooth integration of operations in Spain following the disappointments of Q2. In addition, at this stage of the year, revisions to the guidance are possible, which is a natural point of interest.
Acquisitions in Spain drive growth while Sweden continues to decline
We expect Talenom's Q3 revenue to have grown by 6.0% year-on-year to 26.0 MEUR (Q3’25: 24.6 MEUR). In Finland's core business, we expect moderate growth despite the challenging market situation and high bankruptcy rates. We estimate that revenue grows by a few per cent to 16.3 MEUR (Q2'25: 15.9 MEUR). Although the market situation remains difficult in our view, according to the Talenom barometer, customer revenue grew by an average of +2.5% during the preceding three months (May–July).
In Spain, we expect very strong growth to continue to a level of 5.6 MEUR (Q3'25: 4.4 MEUR), which are supported by previous acquisitions as well as small bolt-on acquisitions completed in the spring. Spain has essentially solidified its position as the Group's second-largest country measured by revenue. In Sweden, we expect revenue to fall to 4.1 MEUR (Q3'25: 4.3 MEUR) as a result of the long tail of previous customer churn. We await management's comments on the stabilization of the revenue decline trend, as this is also a prerequisite for a sustainable turnaround in Sweden.
Finland bears the earnings while international operations seek direction
We expect adjusted EBIT to have remained at the comparison period's level at 1.4 MEUR in Q3. We expect the Finnish business to have continued as a strong earnings engine and to support the entire group's earnings with its stable profitability. We estimate Finland to have generated an EBIT of 2.3 MEUR in Q3 at a healthy margin of over 14%, although we estimate profitability to have weakened from the comparison period. This is particularly due to our assumption of fixed cost growth following the demerger, in addition to which the tightened competitive environment weighs on margins.
In Spain, our attention is focused particularly on cost management and the success of integrations, following the write-downs of sales receivables seen in Q2. We expect Spain's operational profitability to remain weak due to rapid growth and ongoing integration costs. We estimate an EBITDA of 0.3 MEUR (margin 6%). In Sweden, we expect the recovery in EBITDA to have continued despite the decrease in revenue, thanks to previous adjustment measures. We estimate Q3 EBITDA to be at around zero (Q3'25: -0.3 MEUR). We believe the profitability turnaround in Sweden is critically important for Talenom's risk profile and balance sheet goodwill, even though the earnings impact will remain limited in the short term. In addition, we believe that strong cash flow relative to earnings would alleviate concerns regarding the company, but the cash flow statement is presumably not presented in the Q3 review.
Guidance expected to be reiterated, focus on Sweden's turnaround and cash flow
We believe Talenom will reiterate its current year guidance, according to which revenue will be 110-120 MEUR and comparable EBITDA 18-22 MEUR. However, with only Q4 remaining, we consider further guidance adjustments possible. Based on our estimates, potential revisions would narrow the revenue guidance towards the lower end of the range, while the EBITDA guidance would be refined towards the midpoint. Our current estimates expect revenue of 113 MEUR and comparable EBITDA of 19.8 MEUR.
In the report, our attention will be particularly drawn to the development of international operations. In Sweden, the company is targeting a positive EBITDA for the current year, and we consider it paramount that the turnaround progresses on schedule in order to manage the goodwill risks on the balance sheet. In Spain, we will be closely monitoring the progress of integration and profitability development to avoid negative one-off items similar to Q2 in the future In addition, we monitor the development of the company's cash flow. Software investments should ease following the Easor demerger, which should support free cash flow. We believe this is key to managing the company's high leverage.