Solwers Q3'26 flash comment: Earnings dipped below the already low expectations
Summary
- Solwers’ Q3 revenue fell 7% year on year to 16.4 MEUR, below the 17.3 MEUR estimate. Adjusted EBITA was -0.1 MEUR versus an expected 0.2 MEUR.
- The company reiterated its outlook for positive EBITA below 1.1 MEUR and revenue slightly below 80.6 MEUR. The analyst expects further estimate cuts as the earnings turnaround remains slower than expected.
- Solwers warned the year-end net debt/EBITDA covenant may be breached and gave no update on bank talks. The analyst sees a waiver as likely, potentially with higher costs and stricter terms.
This content is generated by AI. You can give feedback on it in the Inderes forum.
Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/12/2026 at 9:10 am EET.
| Estimates | Q3'25 | Q3'26 | Q3'26e | Diff-% | 2026e |
| MEUR/EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Act. vs. Inderes | Inderes |
| Revenue | 17.6 | 16.4 | 17.3 | -6% | 79.3 |
| EBITA (adj.) | 0.4 | -0.1 | 0.2 | neg. | 1 |
| EBITA | 0.4 | -0.1 | 0.1 | neg. | 0.7 |
| EBIT | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0 | neg. | 0.3 |
| Revenue growth-% | 5.50% | -6.70% | -1.30% | -5.4 pp | -1.6% |
| EBITA-% (adj.) | 2.30% | -0.80% | 1.00% | -1.8 pp | 1.2% |
Source: Inderes
This morning, Solwers published its Q3 business review. Revenue and earnings fell short of the estimates we lowered in connection with the profit warning, and the adjusted EBITA slipped slightly into negative territory. As expected, the company reiterated its outlook, updated in October. The review did not provide any new information on the covenant negotiations. We estimate that the weak quarter will increase downward pressure on our estimates and weaken the company's position in its ongoing negotiations with its main financing bank.
Revenue and earnings fell below expectations
Solwers' Q3 revenue decreased by around 7% year-on-year to 16.4 MEUR, whereas we had expected revenue to reach 17.3 MEUR. According to the company, revenue increased due to the infrastructure business and companies acquired at the end of last year. The decline was due to a low volume of new orders in the architecture business, cost-cutting measures, and a low billing rate at the Swedish companies. As of the end of September, the company employed 674 people, about 6% fewer than at the beginning of the year.
The adjusted EBITA fell to -0.1 MEUR (Q3'25 0.4 MEUR), while our estimate was 0.2 MEUR. Consequently, both reported EBITA (-0.1 MEUR) and EBIT (-0.3 MEUR) missed our forecasts (0.1 MEUR and 0.0 MEUR). According to the company, profitability was strong in the infrastructure business and among companies focused on specialized expertise, but earnings in the architecture business fell short of expectations, despite layoffs. On a positive note, the company reported that the profitability of Swedish industrial companies improved toward the end of the quarter thanks to cost-saving measures implemented.
Downward pressure also on forecasts for the rest of the year
Solwers reiterated the outlook it provided on October 22, according to which 2026 EBITA will be positive but remain below the previous year's 1.1 MEUR, and that revenue will remain slightly below the previous year's level of 80.6 MEUR. EBITA for January–September was 0.2 MEUR, meaning the outlook will be met even if Q4 earnings are zero. The Q3 outcome alone weighs on our estimates for the current year. Additionally, the earnings turnaround is proving to be slower than expected, so we anticipate that our Q4 forecasts will decrease slightly from current levels. We had forecast that adjusted EBITA for Q4 would rise to 0.4 MEUR, in line with the comparison period, but, given the loss reported in Q3, we estimate that there is still a long way to go to reach that level.
No new information on covenant negotiations
While the report did not provide any updates on the progress of negotiations with the main financier, the company reiterated its assessment that the net debt/EBITDA covenant may not be met at the end of the year. The company did not comment on the September measurement date, when the limit was 6.5x. Based on the reported figures, the rolling 12-month EBITDA fell to approximately 4.3 MEUR at the end of September (approximately 4.9 MEUR at the end of June). According to our calculations, the company met the September target, but there was relatively little room to spare. If fourth-quarter EBITDA remains at the level of the comparison period, we estimate that the ratio will clearly exceed the year-end limit of 5.0x. The equity ratio was 42.3%, well above the minimum level of 35%. Although we still consider a new waiver to be the most likely outcome, we believe that a weak quarter could result in higher costs for the waiver in the form of increased financing costs and stricter terms.