Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/7/2026 at 7:51 am EEST.

Solar Foods will publish its H1 report on Tuesday, August 11. In the report, our attention is particularly drawn to the first steps of Solein's commercialization in the US, the progress of regulatory approvals, and the advancement of the industrial-scale Factory 02 project. The significant factory financing secured in June has reduced the biggest risks overshadowing the story as the company moves towards a final investment decision.

Commercialization has progressed, but a bigger leap is still awaited

In connection with the earnings preview, we have refined our H1 revenue forecast for Solar Foods to 0.4 MEUR (was 0.5 MEUR, H1'25: 0.0 MEUR). At this stage, revenue consists of deliveries from the Factory 01 demo plant. The company's order backlog at the beginning of the review period was 1.5 MEUR, which provides slight visibility into future revenue, although orders with short delivery times are not recorded in the order book at all. In June, the company announced the launch of the first consumer product containing Solein in the United States in collaboration with Ambrosia Collective, which is an important milestone in the commercialization of the product. However, more significant growth in the company's figures will only be seen in 2028, when the industrial-scale production facility is commissioned. Thus, we do not believe the current revenue level is yet a critical metric for the investment story; instead, the focus is on opening customer accounts and verifying market fit.

Growth investments keep the result firmly in the red

We forecast the company's adjusted operating loss to have deepened to -5.9 MEUR during the review period (H1'25: -4.8 MEUR). The result level continues to be depressed by strong investments in product development, sales, and organizational growth for industrial-scale ramp-up. The result is supported by capitalizations and grants received, such as the IPCEI support, which mitigate the burden on the income statement. However, due to Solar Foods' early development stage, we believe it is more essential to monitor cash flow development and cash adequacy than the income statement, to which the share issue earlier this year and new financing decisions have provided much-needed support.

A critical turning point for the story is looming

We do not expect Solar Foods to provide guidance for the current year in connection with the report. The funding environment for protein fermentation has remained tight, although there are signs of recovery compared to the previous year. We estimate that whey protein prices, which have risen to near-record levels, may fuel investors' interest in alternative protein sources. During the current year, Solar Foods aims to receive a "no questions asked" letter from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) confirming the product's safety, obtain EU Novel Food approval, and make the final investment decision for Factory 02. We estimate that the final investment decision is subordinate to these regulatory processes. Thus, the stock has more short-term price drivers than usual.

Considering the upcoming investment decision, we highlight the 78 MEUR in Business Finland funding secured by Solar Foods in June for the Factory 02 investment. This funding, obtained on attractive terms, together with the 25 MEUR share issue carried out earlier in the year, reduces the need for new funding for the upcoming factory investment and lowers the dilution risk for shareholders.