Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/23/2026 at 9:17 am EEST.

Source: Inderes

Scanfil released its Q3 report this morning. While the figures showed strong growth driven by acquisitions, from an operational perspective, the earnings figures were largely in line with our forecasts, as well as the expectations of other analysts, as far as we can tell. Scanfil reiterated its guidance for the current year, in line with prior estimates. Our preliminary assessment is that the report does not create significant pressure to revise our near-term estimates for Scanfil, at least in terms of the earnings lines.

Organic growth was slightly faster than we anticipated

Scanfil’s revenue grew by 32% in Q3 to 252 MEUR, which exceeded our estimate quite clearly. The MB and ADCO acquisitions accounted for ~21 percentage points of the growth. Organic growth was approximately 9%, which slightly exceeded our forecast. Organic growth was also partly supported by price increases implemented to offset material inflation. Although reported growth was driven towards the Americas and Central Europe due to acquisitions, all regions grew organically as well. Among the segments, Aerospace & Defense once again demonstrated strong momentum, and underlying demand in Medtech & Life Science and Energy & Cleantech remained favorable. In Industrial, macroeconomic uncertainties likely slowed down organic growth. Consequently, revenue development was positive overall in Q3, a period characterized by production shutdowns during the summer holiday season.

Operational earnings performance improved in line with our estimate

Scanfil's adjusted EBITA grew by 26% in Q3 to 17.8 MEUR, which is nearly identical to our forecast. The adjusted EBITA-% decreased slightly year-on-year to 7.1% in Q3. Inflation may indeed have filtered through to Scanfil's revenue and costs slightly faster than we anticipated. Group-level profitability in Q3 was also diluted by APAC's unusually weak margin (driven, according to the company, by the ramp-up of new products and low activity levels at SRX factories). In other areas, margin development was in line with or better than our expectations. The company recorded its usual PPA amortization and slightly positive other non-recurring items on a net basis under adjustments, while financial expenses and the tax rate had no surprises. The company's reported EPS rose to EUR 0.18 in Q3, reflecting operating profit. This exceeded our estimate by one cent thanks to non-recurring returns. Regarding cash flow, the report was weaker than our low expectations, as cash flow from operating activities decreased by around 45% to only 4 MEUR in Q3 due to working capital tied up by volume growth and inflation. Scanfil's net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 1.5x at the end of Q3, which is within the target range of 1x–2x. Overall, we still consider the company's balance sheet to be sound, but it has plenty of work to do in terms of cash flow generation and, in particular, working capital turnover.

Guidance remained unchanged as expected

As expected, Scanfil reiterated its guidance for 2026 of 940-1,060 MEUR revenue and 64-78 MEUR adjusted EBITA. Our forecasts and, to our understanding, those of other analysts are in the middle of these ranges. The company's brief comments on the demand outlook still appeared quite positive, although Q3 was quieter in terms of highly volatile new project wins (Q3: new project wins annualized at 48 MEUR, -33% y/y). Strong momentum in the defense sector and previous project wins provide the company with good visibility into Q4, and we also believe the outlook for next year is positive, despite the uncertainties. Our preliminary assessment is that there is no significant pressure to revise our Scanfil forecasts for the coming years after the Q3 report, at least in terms of the earnings lines.