Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (14.7.2026, 12 estimates)

Saab's Q2 beat both our and consensus expectations on revenue, operating profitability, and EPS. The standout was the 29.8% organic revenue growth, which, combined with operating leverage, lifted the adjusted EBIT margin to 11.0%. Order intake fell short of our elevated expectations, but sustaining high delivery volumes while expanding margins reinforces our thesis on Saab's execution and likely puts upward pressure on our near-term estimates.

High delivery volumes accelerated top-line growth

Revenue came in well above our and consensus forecasts at 25,453 MSEK, as Saab continues to convert its large order backlog into deliveries. Organic sales grew 29.8%, driven by continued progress on key programs and high delivery volumes across the business. As we expected heading into the report, the sustained delivery pace continues to support broad-based growth and eases concerns about Saab's capacity to meet structural demand. At the segment level, Aeronautics, Dynamics and Surveillance beat our expectations on both growth and profitability, while Naval and Combitech came in roughly in line.

Operating leverage pushed profitability above expectations

The top-line strength directly translated to the bottom line, with adjusted EBIT up 41% to 2,794 MSEK, ahead of both our and consensus forecasts. We had expected the adjusted EBIT margin to reach 10.6%, helped by project mix, but it came in at 11.0%, pointing to stronger operating leverage than we had assumed. As we flagged before the report, a smaller-than-expected drag from ramp-up costs could push the group margin toward 11%, and the high delivery volumes appear to have offset these capacity-related headwinds. Net income and EPS (3.96 SEK) likewise beat both our and consensus forecasts. Operating cash flow improved significantly year-on-year, from ~-1.1 BSEK, to -62 MSEK, though it remained negative.

Massive Polish submarine contract anchored order intake

Order intake came in at 68,393 MSEK, below our aggressive estimate but above consensus and sharply higher year-on-year. As anticipated, it was heavily driven by the 47 BSEK submarine order for Poland. The shortfall versus our own estimate reflects the usual quarterly timing volatility in smaller campaigns, but the broader order momentum for the full-year 2026 remains secured. With the backlog extending well beyond the medium-term horizon, we view the exact quarterly intake as less important than Saab's operational throughput.

Continued capacity expansion keeps market demand within reach

The company did not provide new numerical guidance, but management noted that with "continued capacity expansion, high delivery volumes and focus on technological innovation, we are well positioned to meet market demand." In our view, the report confirms that the main margin risk, delivery timing, is well managed, and that Saab is scaling its operations without sacrificing profitability. Given the stronger-than-expected revenue conversion and the robust 11.0% margin, we expect to make upward revisions to our near-term estimates.