Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/26/2026 at 08:03 am EET

Posti will publish its Q3 report on Thursday, October 29. We expect the company's revenue and earnings to have increased from the comparison period, particularly driven by strong volume development in eCommerce and Delivery Services. We estimate that the company will reiterate its full-year guidance and that the operating environment in the transport and logistics sector has remained positive for Posti. In the report, in addition to operational development and efficiency measures, our interest is focused on general market developments.

eCommerce volumes drive revenue growth

We estimate Posti's Q3 revenue to have grown by just under 4% year on year to 356 MEUR (H1'25: 344 MEUR). The consensus forecast expects 350 MEUR in revenue. We expect the strong momentum to have continued in eCommerce and Delivery Services, and we estimate its revenue to have grown broadly across various delivery categories. Overall, parcel volumes have been tailwinded by the pick-up in economic growth during 2026. In Fulfillment and Logistics Services, we expect revenue to have turned to slight growth, driven by new customer accounts. We estimate that the segment's operating environment nevertheless remained challenging and pricing tight, characterized by brisk overcapacity in the industry In Postal Services, we expect revenue to have continued on a downward path. The decline is driven by the digitalization of official communication, in addition to the structural decrease in letter and magazine volumes, which has sharply reduced Posti's delivery volumes. The brisk decline in volumes is mitigated by price increases implemented by Posti.

We expect earnings growth to continue, supported by parcel growth and adjustment measures

We expect Posti’s Q3 adjusted EBIT to rise to 18 MEUR (Q3’25: 17 MEUR), corresponding to a margin of 5.1%. Consensus expects 19 MEUR in earnings. We believe earnings growth is primarily driven by eCommerce and Delivery Services, where we estimate that strong volume growth has scaled well to earnings. The segment's profitability is also boosted by an improved sales mix, as we expect revenue to have grown across all highly profitable parcel categories (freight, B2B, and B2C parcels) rather than solely in C2C parcels, which remain the least profitable for now. We estimate the earnings of Fulfillment and Logistics Services to have been around the weak comparison period level, i.e., to have remained loss-making. We estimate that the segment's earnings development was further depressed by tight price competition in the industry and low warehouse utilization rates, the easing of which we expect to be slow without robust revenue growth. In Postal Services, we expect the company to have been able to defend its earnings level through successful earnings management and price increases despite the sharp decline in volumes. In our estimates, this translates to earnings on par with the comparison period. We estimate that the Astra renewal program and the associated integration of delivery networks will not yet provide significant support to Posti's earnings performance. Despite the increase in EBIT, we estimate an earnings per share of EUR 0.25, matching the comparison period. In our view, the rise in EPS is constrained by financing costs that have increased from the comparison period. We do not believe any real estate transactions took place during the quarter.

The guidance is on a solid footing, but development must not weaken from the Q2 trend

We expect Posti to reiterate its guidance for 2026, which points to revenue of 1,400-1,500 MEUR and an adjusted EBIT of 63-79 MEUR. Our estimates expect full-year revenue to be 1,474 MEUR (consensus 1,462 MEUR) and adjusted EBIT to be 73 MEUR (consensus 70 MEUR), meaning that we and the consensus consider the guidance to be on a solid footing. The key drivers of the solid earnings performance are the improved demand in eCommerce and Delivery Services, and Posti's ability to defend the good earnings level of Postal Services. In practice, the development of these two drivers should have continued on the same trend as seen in Q2. In the report, we will follow with particular interest the progress of the multi-year Astra adjustment program, the volume growth slope of the parcel business, and Postal Services' ability to defend its current good profitability amidst declining volumes. In addition, we will monitor management's comments on the market outlook for the logistics industry.