Orthex Q3'26 preview: Margins protected at the expense of growth
Summary
- Orthex's Q3 revenue is expected to grow slightly to 23.7 MEUR, driven by Nordic retail trade, despite challenges in other European markets due to price increases limiting growth.
- The Q3 adjusted EBIT is projected to decrease to 2.7 MEUR, with an EBIT margin of 11.6%, as the rising cost of plastic raw materials impacts profitability, though proactive price increases help mitigate this effect.
- Management's comments on cost inflation management and competitive dynamics are anticipated, with a focus on how price increases affect margins and the potential for local production advantages due to rising sea freight prices.
- Despite the challenging environment, Orthex's strong balance sheet and efficient production are expected to support profitability and competitiveness in the market.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/03/2026 at 07:40 am EET
| Estimates | Q3'25 | Q3'26 | Q3'26e | Q3'26e | Consensus | 2026e | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEUR / EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Low | High | Inderes | |
| Revenue | 23.4 | 23.7 | 24.5 | 23.7 | - | 25.2 | 89.8 | |
| Gross margin | 6.7 | 6.3 | 6.3 | - | - | - | 24.1 | |
| EBITDA | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.7 | - | 4.0 | 13.1 | |
| EBIT (adj.) | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | - | 3.3 | 8.5 | |
| EBIT | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | - | 3.3 | 8.0 | |
| EPS (rep.) | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.09 | - | 0.14 | 0.28 | |
| Revenue growth-% | 2.5 % | 1.1 % | 4.7 % | 1.3% | - | 7.7% | 3.0 % | |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 14.3 % | 11.6 % | 11.4 % | 10.1% | - | 13.1% | 9.5 % | |
Source: Inderes & Bloomberg (consensus)
Orthex will publish its Q3 report on Thursday, November 5. The company's earnings webcast can be followed here at 11:00 am EET. We expect revenue to have grown slightly, driven by the Nordics, but for the raw material price spike to now hit earnings in full. However, the company's proactive price increases are mitigating margin pressure, even as they simultaneously slow down the conquest of the European growth market.
Retail trade in the Nordic countries creates conditions for a sales surprise
We expect Orthex's Q3 revenue to have grown slightly year-on-year to 23.7 MEUR (Q3’25: 23.4 MEUR). Nordic retail revenue indicators provide an encouraging picture of the demand environment's development, which can set the stage for a positive sales surprise and a continuation of the Nordic countries' strong Q2 development. On the other hand, we expect growth to remain gloomy in the other European growth markets. Price increases implemented due to cost inflation are making it harder to win new distribution and shelf space, which already limited growth in Europe in Q2. We estimate that this dynamic continued to some extent also in the third quarter, as price increases typically postpone new campaigns and distribution agreements.
The raw material price spike is now fully visible
We estimate that the Q3 adjusted EBIT falls to 2.7 MEUR (Q3'25: 3.3 MEUR) which corresponds to an EBIT margin of 11.6% (Q3'25: 14.3%). The rising cost of plastic raw materials will be fully reflected in Orthex's figures for the first time in Q3, which weighs on the company's relative profitability. Compared to the previous inflation shock, however, the company has implemented price increases at an earlier stage, which we expect will mitigate the impact of rising costs on profitability. In addition, we believe the company's conscious decision to decrease lower-margin campaign sales supports the gross margin, even though it limits top-line growth. We expect earnings to remain clearly profitable despite the challenging environment.
Eyes on pricing power and competitiveness
Orthex typically does not provide short-term numerical guidance, so in the report, our attention will be focused on management's comments on the outlook for the rest of the year and the management of cost inflation. We look to the report for confirmation of how effectively proactive price increases address raw material price pressure and whether the company has succeeded in defending its margins as we expect.
We are also interested in management's comments on the dynamics of the competitive landscape and the development of export markets. Surging sea freight prices could strengthen Orthex's competitiveness compared to products coming from Asia, which could open up new opportunities for the company's local production. On the other hand, price increases are slowing down the acquisition of new key customers in Central Europe, which are strategically important for the company. However, the company's strong balance sheet and efficient production provide good conditions to navigate the current challenging market environment.