Translation: Original published in Finnish on 4/30/2026 at 8:10 am EEST.

Source: Inderes & Bloomberg, 3 analysts (consensus)

Orthex will publish its Q1 report on Thursday, May 7 at 11:00 am EEST, and the earnings release can be viewed here. We expect the company's revenue to have returned to a growth trajectory after a weak end to last year. The company is facing a weak comparison period, during which sales in European export markets fell sharply due to increased credit risks among customers and the subsequent reduction in deliveries. In particular, we will focus on the report’s outlook for the rest of the year regarding the impact of raw material inflation caused by the conflict in Iran, as well as the company’s pricing strategy to mitigate these effects.

We expect revenue to have turned to moderate growth

We estimate Orthex's Q1 revenue to have grown 2.6% to 21.5 MEUR. Following the weak revenue development in Q4, we are looking to the report for confirmation of a recovery in growth. We expect European growth markets to have driven the group's growth, and the weak comparison period should accentuate the sales trend. In Sweden and Finland, retail sales figures outperformed our expectations in the first months of the year, prompting us to raise our Q1 sales forecast for the Nordic countries slightly. We expect the company to achieve 1% growth in invoiced sales in the Nordic countries. We estimate that sales outside Europe, which are of secondary strategic importance, remained low during the quarter.

Pressure on raw material prices not yet fully reflected in earnings

We expect adjusted EBIT to have risen to 1.8 MEUR in Q1 from 1.7 MEUR in the comparison period. This would correspond to an EBIT margin of 8.6% (Q1'25: 8.2%). In our assessment, the increased plastic raw material prices due to the war in Iran have not yet been reflected in Orthex's Q1 figures because contract prices for plastic raw materials react with a delay to external disruptions and because the company's inventory turnover takes approximately one quarter. Thus, profitability in the early part of the year is still supported by the more favorable raw material costs from late 2025. However, earnings are constrained by higher sales and marketing investments than in the comparison period, which support the company's growth strategy.

Focus on management comments regarding inflation shock management

Orthex does not typically provide short-term numerical guidance, so in the report, we focus on the management comments regarding future profitability pressures and pricing strategy. The rise in oil and plastic raw material prices caused by the conflict in Iran creates significant uncertainty regarding earnings development for the rest of the year, so we are looking to the report for clarity on the timing and extent of potential price increases. During the 2022 inflation shock, Orthex aimed for smaller but more sustainable price increases to maintain its price image, which we believe was a sound decision. We will also monitor comments regarding developments in the export market and potential new key customers, as these are essential for achieving the growth target.