Source: Inderes & Bloomberg (12.05.2026, 11 analysts)

NIBE will publish its Q1 report on Tuesday, 19 May at 08:00 CEST, and the earnings presentation can be followed here. We expect the report to show a gradual but continued recovery in both sales volumes and margins, particularly driven by the Climate Solutions business area. While we believe currency headwinds from a stronger SEK will pose challenges, we anticipate that improved underlying demand and solid cost control will support the results. In the report, our focus will be on management's commentary regarding the momentum in European heat pump sales and the progression towards the 2026 margin targets.

Gradual revenue recovery driven by Climate Solutions

We estimate that NIBE's Q1 revenue will remain relatively flat year-on-year, growing by 0.4% to 9,714 MSEK, slightly above consensus forecast. We expect currency headwinds from a stronger SEK to continue weighing on the reported figures. We estimate the primary growth driver to be the Climate Solutions business area, for which we forecast Q1 revenue of 6,082 MSEK, supported by a gradual recovery in European heat pump demand. Available heat pump market data for Q1 shows that heat pump sales increased by 17% in 11 European countries, with France, Germany, Poland, and Finland leading the way and growing on average around 30%. While many factors are driving this growth, we believe that national subsidy schemes, rising energy prices, and energy insecurity concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict are fueling demand for green energy technologies, particularly toward the end of the quarter. For the Element business area, we anticipate revenue of 2,922 MSEK, supported by positive development in the HVAC segments. However, we expect the Stoves business area to remain a drag on top-line growth with estimated revenue of 889 MSEK, as it continues to face a weak European market.

Margins supported by cost control and productivity improvements

We forecast Q1 adjusted EBIT to land at 859 MSEK, corresponding to an EBIT margin of 8.8%, slightly below consensus forecast. We anticipate profitability will be supported by increased sales volumes in the Climate Solutions and Element segments, alongside improved productivity and solid operational cost control. However, we expect the Stoves business area to continue facing margin pressure due to lower volumes and the negative impact of tariffs. On the bottom line, we expect Q1 EPS to increase to 0.24 SEK (Q1'25: 0.19 SEK), also slightly below consensus forecast.

Focus on market dynamics and margin targets

NIBE does not provide specific numerical financial guidance. However, the company has consistently reiterated its ambition for all three business areas to return to their historically demonstrated operating margin ranges by 2026. We will be looking for management's updated commentary on this progression, particularly for the Element and Stoves segments, which have lagged behind Climate Solutions in reaching their respective targets.

In our view, the investment case remains highly dependent on a sustained volume rebound in the European heat pump market. A key point of focus for us in the Q1 report will be management's remarks on the current market dynamics, including how the company is affected by the Middle East conflict and developments in the German market following the repeal of parts of the heating law.