Nibe Industrier operates in the manufacturing industry and focuses on the development, manufacture and distribution of heat pumps and energy solutions. The company's products are aimed at private individuals and companies looking for energy-efficient solutions. The business is global with a main presence in Europe. Nibe Industrier was founded in 1989 and has its headquarters in Markaryd, Sweden.
NIBE’s Q4 report came in somewhat below our expectations, mainly due to stronger FX headwinds than we had expected. However, the underlying organic growth and margins were strong, especially in the important Climate Solutions business area, which gives us more confidence in the current turnaround. Despite the recent surge in the share price, we still believe that the valuation (P/E 2026-2027: 25x and 21x) is attractive. As a result, we reiterate our Accumulate Recommendation but increase our target price to SEK 44 per share (prev. SEK 38 per share), mainly due to increased estimates and slightly reduced risk profile.
NIBE will publish its Q4'25 results on Thursday, February 12, 2026, and the earnings presentation can be followed here at 11:00 CET. We expect the report to show that the gradual recovery in sales volumes and margins is progressing in the right direction. While the operating environment remains challenging, particularly in the new-build market, we anticipate that improved demand in key European heat pump markets and effective cost control will support the results. A key point in the Q4 report will be management's updated commentary on margin targets for 2026.
While NIBE’s Q3 report came in somewhat below our expectations, we believe the overall picture remains unchanged: a gradual recovery in sales volumes and margins continues moving in the right direction. Therefore, we view the market’s reaction, driving the share price down 13%, as somewhat exaggerated and see it as creating an even more attractive entry point into the company’s compelling long-term investment story. As a result, we reiterate our Accumulate recommendation but lower our target price slightly to SEK 38.0 per share (prev. SEK 40.0), mainly due to lower estimates.
NIBE’s valuation has continued to moderate, while European heat pump market data continues to show positive signals of a recovery, supporting our estimates. Medium-term valuation multiples (2026: P/E 21x and EV/EBIT: 17x) are well below the company’s long-term medians and appear attractive in our view. Therefore, we believe the company’s interesting long-term investment story can be accessed with a good risk/return ratio at the current valuation, and we are updating our recommendation to Accumulate (prev. Reduce) but reiterate our target price of SEK 40.0 per share.
NIBE announced on Monday that it had acquired 70% of the Italian company Selmo S.r.l. We believe that the acquisition is in line with the company's strategy and strengthens the Element business area. However, the deal is very small compared to NIBE’s scale, and it does not have an immediate significant impact on our estimates or view of the company. We will update the acquisition to our estimates in connection with the company’s Q3 report at the latest.
In our last update following the Q2 report, we reiterated our Sell recommendation for NIBE, and since then, the share price has fallen by around -20%. As a result, we believe that the valuation has come down to more neutral levels. However, at current valuation levels, we believe that the total expected return is roughly in line with our required return. As a result, we turn to a Reduce recommendation but reiterate our target price of SEK 40 per share.
NIBE’s Q2 result was largely in line with our expectations, and we made only minor upside revisions to our earnings estimates. The company’s performance, outlook and market indicators continue to show signs of a recovery. However, in our view, the pace of the recovery will likely remain slow, due to a weak consumer confidence, a sluggish new-build market, currency headwinds from a strengthening SEK, and subsidy uncertainty in certain markets. In our view, short-term drivers remain weak, and the stock is already sufficiently priced in for high earnings growth (2025e P/E: 34x). As a result, we reiterate our Sell recommendation and target price of SEK 40.0 per share.
