Nibe Industrier operates in the manufacturing industry and focuses on the development, manufacture and distribution of heat pumps and energy solutions. The company's products are aimed at private individuals and companies looking for energy-efficient solutions. The business is global with a main presence in Europe. Nibe Industrier was founded in 1989 and has its headquarters in Markaryd, Sweden.
German heat pump sales grew 40% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 to 195,000 units, supporting our view of a continued recovery in the European heat pump market ahead of NIBE's Q2 report.
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In our view, this is a classic bolt-on acquisition that fits naturally within NIBE Element, which already designs and manufactures resistive heating elements and components for a broad range of household and commercial appliances.
We believe that NIBE delivered a solid start to the year, with the Q1 report coming in broadly in line with our expectations. While the Stoves segment remained a drag and the near-term outlook is somewhat softer than we had anticipated, the underlying organic growth and margins within the key Climate Solutions business area continued to gradually recover. In addition, European heat pump market data continues to indicate improving demand trends, supporting our estimates for a continued recovery. Medium-term valuation multiples (2026-2027: P/E 21-24x and EV/EBIT: 16-19x) are below the company’s long-term medians and appear attractive in our view. Therefore, we believe the company’s interesting long-term investment story can be accessed with a good risk/reward ratio at the current valuation, and we reiterate our Accumulate recommendation and target price of SEK 44 per share.
We expect the report to show a gradual but continued recovery in both sales volumes and margins, particularly driven by the Climate Solutions business area.
According to data from Germany's Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK), applications for heat pump subsidies in Germany totaled 21,342 in January 2026. This represents a significant 49% increase compared to January 2025, although it is a sequential decrease that follows the typical seasonal pattern. In our view, today’s data offers a slight counterbalance to the recent negative headlines, indicating that underlying demand momentum in Germany, one of NIBE’s key markets, remains intact.
The German government’s decision to scrap key parts of its contentious heating law is an unfortunate development that we believe will have a negative impact on the German heat pump market. While it is currently difficult to determine the exact extent of the impact on NIBE, Germany remains a critical market and a primary growth driver for the company. In our view, this policy reversal increases the risk profile for the Climate Solutions business area in the medium term, as it reduces the regulatory pressure on German households to transition to renewable heating solutions.
NIBE’s Q4 report came in somewhat below our expectations, mainly due to stronger FX headwinds than we had expected. However, the underlying organic growth and margins were strong, especially in the important Climate Solutions business area, which gives us more confidence in the current turnaround. Despite the recent surge in the share price, we still believe that the valuation (P/E 2026-2027: 25x and 21x) is attractive. As a result, we reiterate our Accumulate Recommendation but increase our target price to SEK 44 per share (prev. SEK 38 per share), mainly due to increased estimates and slightly reduced risk profile.
