Translation: Original published in Finnish on 5/14/2026 at 9:18 am EEST.

On Wednesday, Koskisen issued a profit warning, in which the company significantly lowered its profitability guidance for the current year and provided preliminary Q1 results that were lower than our and consensus expectations. Although the company's pre-silent call in April already hinted at challenges in the early part of the year, the significant downgrade was still a clear disappointment. The profit warning and soft Q1 figures will cause clear negative changes to at least our earnings estimates for the current year and, in our view, also to consensus expectations. We will update our view on Koskisen after the Q1 report is published on Friday, May 15.

New guidance paints a rather subdued picture for the rest of the year

According to the updated guidance, Koskisen still expects 2026 revenue to grow from 2025 levels, but the adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to remain below last year's 8.1%. Previously, the company guided for a margin of 8–12%. Our forecast for the current year's adjusted EBITDA margin was 10.0% before the profit warning, and the consensus was slightly higher. The guidance downgrade will lead to significant cuts in our and consensus estimates, at least for the current year. The company attributed the weakened outlook to prolonged low demand in the construction sector due to economic and geopolitical uncertainty, as well as increased energy, timber harvesting, raw material, and freight costs. In addition, operational challenges at the Järvelä sawmill and in birch plywood production in the early part of the year weighed on the full-year earnings outlook. Thus, the market environment is set to remain significantly more challenging than we expected for longer, in terms of demand, pricing, and costs.

Q1 profitability falls short of expectations despite revenue exceeding forecasts

At the same time, Koskisen published preliminary information on its Q1 development. The company's revenue grew by 22% year-on-year to 105 MEUR, which clearly exceeded our 97 MEUR estimate and the consensus, which was at roughly the same level. Adjusted EBITDA, in turn, decreased by 30% from the comparison period to 6.6 MEUR, representing what we consider a rather modest margin of 6.3%. Q1 operating profit was clearly weaker than our and consensus estimates, which had anticipated only a slight decline in profit. The company already reported in April on the operational challenges at the Järvelä sawmill in the early part of the year, the exceptionally cold weather and high energy costs. The drop in profitability has nevertheless been stronger than our and consensus expectations, even though volumes were likely better than our estimate based on the revenue forecast beat.