Koskisen Q4'25 preview: Upward trend expected for Q4 and 2026

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/10/2026 at 8:05 am EET.

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance consensus (3 estimates)

Koskisen will publish its 2025 financial statements bulletin on Friday at 8:30 am EET and the company's earnings release can be followed here (in Finnish). We expect Koskisen's revenue and result to have grown significantly year-on-year in Q4. Growth and earnings performance have been supported, in particular, by strong volume growth in the Sawn Timber Industry and the acquisition of Iisveden Metsä. We anticipate that Koskisen's 2026 guidance will indicate revenue growth and an improved adjusted EBITDA margin at the midpoint of the range. We expect Koskisen to increase its dividend by about 40%, to EUR 0.20 per share. Thus far, we believe that Koskisen's share price has fairly accurately reflected the predicted earnings growth, which remains uncertain especially in terms of scale (2025e and 2026e: adj. P/E 20x and 11x).

Sawn Timber Industry and acquisitions have accelerated revenue growth in Q4

We forecast that Koskisen’s revenue increased by about 30% in Q4 to 95.0 MEUR, which narrowly exceeds the consensus. Growth is driven by the Sawn Timber Industry, where the ramp-up of the new Järvelä saw line has increased volumes and the acquisition of Iisveden Metsä in June provides significant inorganic growth. There have been no major changes in the market situation for the Sawn Timber Industry, but the company has been able to operate its sawmills at full capacity despite sluggish demand. In the Panel Industry, demand for birch plywood has remained moderate, picking up slightly toward the end of Q4. However, the weak cycle in Finnish construction is weighing on chipboard volumes, and the decrease in European vehicle registrations is weighing on Kore business volumes. Demand for energy wood (Sawn Timber Industry) has also been weaker than in the comparison period due to the warm end of the year and decreased prices.

Profitability improved in both units in our forecasts

We expect that Koskisen’s adjusted EBITDA improved by about 50% in Q4 to 8.6 MEUR. Our estimate is slightly below consensus. The improvement in profitability has been particularly driven by the Sawn Timber Industry, which benefits from volume growth and efficiency gains resulting from the Järvelä investments, as well as a slightly positive earnings contribution from Iisveden Metsä. In the Panel Industry, we expect operational performance to have normalized after the production challenges and inventory write-downs in Q3, and we estimate that the Panel Industry will improve from a comparison period burdened by non-recurring items. We estimate that wood costs remained high in Q4 as, during the quarter, Koskisen probably used reserves purchased at a higher price than the recently fallen market price. We expect the group's reported EPS, adjusted for increased depreciation and amortization, normal finance costs, and the tax rate, to have settled at EUR 0.14 in Q4, reflecting the improvement in operating earnings.

Forecasts indicate growth and clear margin improvement

We expect Koskisen to provide verbal guidance on revenue and a numerical range for operational profitability for 2026, as in previous years. Both we and the consensus predict double-digit revenue growth for Koskisen, as well as an adjusted EBITDA margin of 10.6–11.6% (lower range Inderes, upper range consensus). Therefore, to meet expectations, Koskisen should provide guidance on revenue growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 10-13%, for example. Although the recovery in construction has been slow, we expect the trend to gradually improve, thanks to falling interest rates and an upturn in European economic growth. Increased capacity and improved efficiency in both businesses, resulting from investments, should also support Koskisen's performance this year, establishing the company's competitiveness on a firmer footing. Thus, we believe there are good grounds for expecting an upward trajectory (including the bar set by the valuation), although we think that achieving the margin improvement in consensus estimates may be challenging without a clearly improving market situation for both construction (Sawn Timber Industry) and the logistics sector (Panel Industry).