Kempower Q3'26 flash comment: Market demand even weaker than expected
Summary
- Kempower's Q3 earnings were weaker than expected, with revenue declining 10% year-on-year to 66.2 MEUR, and adjusted EBIT at -1.7 MEUR, below forecasts.
- Order intake fell 19% year-on-year, indicating a sharper decline than anticipated, as charge point operators prioritized profitability over new investments.
- The company lowered its guidance for 2026, expecting revenue growth of around 5% and operational EBIT to be lower than in 2025, while increasing its cost-saving target to 15 MEUR.
- Despite challenging market conditions, Kempower's order book remains strong, supporting revenue continuity, though the full impact of cost savings is expected by Q3'27.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/4/2026 at 9:05 am EET.
| Estimates | Q3'25 | Q3'26 | Q3'26e | Q3'26e | Diff-% | 2026e | |
| MEUR/EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Act. vs. Inderes | Inderes | |
| Revenue | 73.7 | 66.2 | 73.7 | 74.4 | -10% | 299 | |
| Order intake | 74.7 | 60.8 | 68.7 | 71.5 | -12% | 294 | |
| Gross margin | 45.80% | 45.90% | 45.80% | 47.40% | 0.1 pp | 46.50% | |
| EBIT (adj.) | 0.2 | -1.7 | 0 | 0.6 | 1 | ||
| EPS (reported) | 0 | -0.06 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Revenue growth-% | 40.90% | -10.20% | 0.00% | 0.90% | -10.2 pp | 19.0% | |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 0.20% | -2.60% | 0.00% | 0.80% | -2.6 pp | 0.3% |
Source: Inderes and Modular Finance
Kempower announced a negative profit warning last evening and reported its Q3 earnings this morning. The key figures for Q3 were weaker than we expected, as demand softened and charge point operators prioritized improving profitability over investments. The company significantly increased its cost-saving program targets. We expect consensus estimates to decrease today, which will likely lead to a significant negative reaction in the share price.
Orders weakened more than expected as customers emphasized raising utilization
Orders received fell 19% year-on-year in Q3, which was a steeper decline than forecast (we had forecast -10%; the consensus was -4%). The company noted that charging point installations in Europe decreased by 22% in Q3, indicating that it has maintained or strengthened its market share. The company views market activity and customer demand as having weakened sharply, as CPOs prioritize improving utilization and profitability over building new capacity. Industry consolidation is also delaying investment decisions. Electrification continues in the commercial vehicle sector, but closing deals is taking longer than before and some investments are being postponed. Challenging market conditions are expected to persist in the near future.
Demand was also reflected in other figures; gross margin remained stable
Revenue came in at 66.2 MEUR, marking a 10% year-on-year decline. This was 10% below our estimate (11% below consensus). Growth remained weak relative to the order book (order book +18% y/y at the end of Q2), which also reflects the importance of short-delivery-time orders in the company’s business. The gross margin was stable at 45.9% and thus in line with our estimate. Adjusted EBIT was -1.7 MEUR, which was weaker than expected (we forecast 0.0 MEUR, consensus 0.6 MEUR), mainly due to the revenue shortfall.
Guidance lowered; company raised its cost-saving target
Following the lowered guidance, the company now expects revenue to grow by around 5% year-on-year in 2026 (previously: growth of 10–25%). Further, Kempower expects operational EBIT to be lower compared to year 2025 (previously: will improve significantly compared to 2025). We were surprised by the sharp decline in guidance, as we expected the strong order book to support the current year more clearly and, conversely, for weakened demand to be reflected more significantly only in 2027 revenue. On the other hand, the company's order book remains fairly strong (+9% y/y), which supports revenue continuity. The company increased its target for the cost-cutting program related to fixed costs to 15 MEUR (previously 5 MEUR), and the full impact of the savings is expected to be realized starting in Q3'27.