HCA Red Flag: BioMar upgrades guidance, but outlook points to a weaker fourth quarter (AI)
HC Andersen Capital
Summary
- BioMar upgraded its guidance, but the outlook suggests a weaker fourth quarter with an operating profit of DKK 348 million, below the expected DKK 429 million.
- The third quarter operating profit of DKK 618 million exceeded all estimates, driven by the salmon segment, prompting upward revisions for 2026 estimates.
- Despite a 52% increase in operating cash flow to DKK 675 million, BioMar faces challenges with temporary margin boosts and decreased shrimp feed earnings due to low shrimp prices and expensive fish meal.
- BioMar's Tech Solutions segment returned to profitability with DKK 19 million, reversing a previous loss, but earnings remain below the prior year.
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Automatic translation: Originally published in Danish 03/11/2026, 08:43 GMT. Give feedback here.
Red Flag – First read of the financial statements – AI-generated content – shares already trading
HCA Red Flag: BioMar upgrades guidance, but outlook points to a weaker fourth quarter (AI)
BioMar Group (BIOMAR) · Q3 2026 · November 2
Shares +18% over 3 months, 3% below the peak since the IPO in May
| Overall assessment | Slightly negative assessment |
| Positive view | Balanced | Negative view |
At 09:10, the shares were trading 2.8% below the share price prior to yesterday's upward revision at 15:40; the probable reason is that the guidance only leaves room for an operating profit of DKK 348 million in the fourth quarter vs. the expected DKK 429 million. Q3 at DKK 618 million beat all estimates, lifting the 2026 estimates.
Red flags in the financial statements
The outlook points to a flat fourth quarter
Implied: DKK 313 to 383 million · Est. DKK 429 million
The full-year guidance leaves a midpoint of DKK 348 million for the fourth quarter, matching the previous year. The quarter came in DKK 131 million above expectations, but the full year only DKK 57 million higher, meaning fourth-quarter estimates will need to be revised downward.
BioMar calls part of the margin temporary
Actual DKK 1,221 per tonne · Previous year: DKK 840
Expensive fish oil and fish meal during the El Niño weather phenomenon made replacing them in salmon feed extra valuable. Management does not expect the entire boost to hold, so the gain cannot be carried straight into 2027.
BioMar sells more shrimp feed and earns half as much
Actual DKK 20 million · Previous year: DKK 41 million
Record-low shrimp prices for farmers in Ecuador and expensive fish meal prevented BioMar from passing on costs. At the same time, weak demand, particularly in Ecuador, has decreased this year's guidance for feed sales to 1,600 to 1,650 thousand tonnes.
Green flags in the financial statements
Operating profit beat all estimates
Actual DKK 618 million · Est. DKK 487 million
The salmon segment accounted for DKK 518 million vs. DKK 276 million the previous year. Even the highest of four estimates, DKK 513 million, was beaten, meaning estimates for 2026 will need to be revised upward.
Operating cash flow rose 52%
Actual DKK 675 million · Previous year: DKK 445 million
Working capital is DKK 98 million lower than a year ago, even though inventories are 27% larger in value. Net debt is down to 1.37 times operating profit before depreciation, leaving room for dividends.
Tech Solutions is profitable again
Actual DKK 19 million · Q2: minus DKK 3 million
AQ1 Systems, BioMar's AI-driven feeding systems, has shifted its sales model to direct sales and reversed the first-half loss. This answers the question from Danske Bank analyst Ulrik Bak in August, but earnings remain below the previous year.
Disclaimer: This is an HCA AI-generated research commentary based solely on the company's published financial statements. HC Andersen Capital has a Digital IR agreement with BioMar. The commentary does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for investment decisions. Investing in shares involves the risk of loss. Seek professional advice. /HC Andersen Capital, 09:42, November 3, 2026.