Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/6/2026 at 7:35 am EET.

Yesterday, Enento announced its updated strategy and new long-term financial targets for 2027–2030. The strategy’s direction was as expected, as it relies heavily on themes the company has highlighted recently, such as unique data, AI, and opportunities created by regulation. The financial targets are practically unchanged for growth and profitability, but the company has added a separate earnings growth target. Enento will host a Capital Markets Day on November 18, at which it will elaborate on its updated strategy in more detail. Based purely on the press release, we see no need for forecast changes.

From data provider to decision-making support

At the core of the strategy is Enento’s leading position in Nordic credit information and financial crime prevention services. The company aims to move from being a data provider toward supporting customers’ decision-making processes with AI-powered services. It sees AI, tightening regulation, and the growing need to combat fraud and financial crime as its key market drivers. The strategy has four themes: helping customers make use of data and AI, increasing the amount of unique data, faster time to market, and efficient and simple operations. In our view, the strategy contained no major surprises and is in line with what the company has recently highlighted in its interim reports.

Notably, the company also clearly opened the door to portfolio changes. It said it may consider divesting businesses outside its core and making acquisitions that strengthen the core. The sale of Emaileri and the acquisition of Eivora this year already point in this direction, but the scope of any further portfolio changes remains open.

Several targeted growth areas

The company is seeking organic growth from five directions:

• the core business, i.e. credit information
• additional sales to existing customers
• new customers outside the banking sector
• expansion of anti-financial crime services
• bringing data and decision-making services directly into customers’ AI tools (such as AI Connector, the company’s MCP server)

According to the company, growth is supported by tightening regulation, an increasing volume of unique data, an AI-powered data platform to be built in 2027, and a simpler product portfolio. We believe the growth drivers are credible, and some are already visible in the figures. In Sweden, the company has signed its first CCD2-related contracts with BNPL providers, which it says should be reflected in revenue in 2027. Compliance services have grown well, and the Eivora acquisition strengthened the compliance offering in Sweden. The planned data platform was an interesting highlight, and at the Capital Markets Day we will look for more detail on it and on the investment it requires.

Unique data as the cornerstone of the AI strategy

AI is understandably at the core of the strategy, and it currently plays a significant role in the company's investment story as both an opportunity and a threat. We believe the company's view that artificial intelligence increases the value of reliable and verified data is credible. In the Q3 webcast, the company revealed that approximately 60% of its revenue comes from data and services that are unique to Enento. The share of unique data is highest in Sweden. In our view, this provides protection for the business, and the value of this data will grow even further in the era of AI.

Conversely, the remaining ~40% of revenue comes from data that is not unique, and in our view, the business related to this may face greater competition. The company itself also expects competition in this area to tighten over time, although customers have so far wanted to acquire this data through Enento as well. Therefore, we believe the strategy's theme of growing unique data is well-founded, and we will monitor its progress closely.

Financial targets practically unchanged

New financial targets for 2027–2030:

• average organic revenue growth (CAGR) of 5–10%
• adjusted EBITDA margin of over 40% by the end of 2030
• the ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA below 3x
• double-digit average annual growth in adjusted EPS

The growth, profitability, and debt targets are practically the same as before. The growth target changed in that the target now applies to organic growth (previously total growth). The company has targeted an adjusted EBITDA margin of 40% for some time now, although the time window required to achieve it was removed in 2025. The earnings growth target is new, but in our view, it is a quite natural consequence if the company achieves its growth and profitability targets (provided the share count does not dilute).

The target regarding the share of new services was removed. We consider this justified, as the informative value of the metric is low. New services occasionally cannibalize older ones, and the metric fluctuates heavily if a specific new service falls outside the time window required by the definition (launch within the previous 36 months).

Regarding dividends, the company aims for a regularly increasing dividend paid twice a year, and it can return excess capital through share buybacks or extra dividends. The previous dividend policy was at least 70% of the company's net earnings. We believe that keeping share buybacks as an option is a good addition to the profit distribution policy (a small buyback program is currently underway).

In our view, the targets are ambitious. In recent years, Enento has not come close to reaching its growth target. Revenue contracted in 2023–2024, comparable growth was 0% in 2025, and this year we expect it to be ~3%. In our current forecasts, revenue will grow by an average of ~3.5% per year in 2026–2030. Even the lower limit of the growth target would therefore require a clear acceleration from the current pace.

In our view, the profitability target is contingent on the materialization of growth. Our estimate for the current year is 36.3% and ~37% for the coming years. The company intends to improve profitability by making IT, sales, and operations more efficient. If growth proves faster than we expect, we see the company as having the prerequisites to reach 40%.

In our view, the EPS target is achievable if the company reaches its growth and profitability targets. Our forecasts already expect EPS to grow by just under 11% per year by 2029 (using 2026 as the baseline). Our EPS is adjusted only for PPA depreciation (no one-off items), so the metric is slightly different, making the 2026 baseline lower.

The balance sheet leverage target remains unchanged. We believe the targeted level is justified given the predictability of Enento's business and its stable cash flow. Currently the level is 2.3x, so the company is clearly within the target.

The Capital Markets Day will be held in about two weeks

Enento will host a Capital Markets Day on November 18, when the company will elaborate on its updated strategy in more detail. In our view, AI in particular, along with the opportunities and threats it creates, is an especially interesting theme.