Digia Q3'26 preview: Profit warning has signposted a weaker quarter
Summary
- Digia's Q3 revenue is expected to decrease by nearly 3% to 48 MEUR, with organic growth impacted by customer caution and challenges in ERP projects and Digital Solutions.
- Adjusted EBITA is anticipated to decline to 4.7 MEUR, reflecting a margin of approximately 10%, due to lower billing rates and ongoing strategic investments.
- Despite a profit warning and updated guidance indicating a decline in EBITA, Digia expects full-year revenue to grow slightly, supported by strategic agreements like the OP deal.
- Attention will focus on management's comments regarding the IT services market outlook, strategic investment productivity, and the integration of Savangard.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/23/2026 at 07:30 am EEST
| Estimates | Q3'25 | Q3'26 | Q3'26e | Q3'26e | Consensus | 2026e | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEUR / EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Low | High | Inderes | ||
| Revenue | 49.3 | 48.0 | 219 | ||||||
| Organic growth-% | -0.4 % | -2.7 % | -1.5 % | ||||||
| EBITA (adj.) | 5.6 | 4.7 | 20.3 | ||||||
| EBITA | 4.3 | 4.0 | 16.5 | ||||||
| EPS (adj.) | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.58 | ||||||
| EPS (rep.) | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.58 | ||||||
| Revenue growth-% | 8.5 % | -2.7 % | 0.8 % | ||||||
| EBITA-% (adj.) | 11.3 % | 9.9 % | 9.3 % | ||||||
Source: Inderes
Digia will publish its Q3 report on Tuesday, October 27. We expect the company's revenue and earnings to have declined year-on-year, guided by the profit warning issued in September. Customer caution regarding investments has continued, which weighs on the company's billing rates. In the report, our attention will be particularly focused on management's comments on the demand outlook for the IT services market, the progress of strategic investments, and the long-term support provided by the recently announced OP agreement.
Revenue decreases, weighed down by the soft demand environment
We expect Digia's Q3 revenue to decrease by nearly 3% to 48 MEUR (Q2'25: 49 MEUR). As the acquisition of the Polish company Savangard is already included in the figures for the comparison period, the decrease in revenue is purely organic. Growth is weighed on by customers' continued caution regarding investments, which the company reported in connection with its September profit warning. We estimate that the challenges seen in Q2, particularly in ERP projects and the Digital Solutions service area, also continued in the third quarter. On the other hand, the significant delivery agreement for the DiFS product announced with OP in October will support the Financial Platforms segment's order book and utilization rates in the future, but naturally does not yet impact the Q3 figures. We will be watching with interest to see whether the international business has continued its strong momentum from the beginning of the year, despite challenges in the Finnish market.
Profitability under pressure due to billing rates and investments
We expect the adjusted EBITA to have decreased to 4.7 MEUR (Q3'25: 5.6 MEUR) which corresponds to a margin of close on 10% (Q3'25: 11.3%). Profitability is weighed down by lower billing rates resulting from declining revenue and the previously announced challenging projects. In addition, despite the difficult market, the company has continued its investments in productization, AI, and international growth in line with its new strategy. These frontloaded investments limit short-term performance. General price pressure in the sector, combined with wage inflation, also creates continuous headwind for margins, although Poland's nearshore capability improves the company's price competitiveness.
New guidance already known, focus on market outlook
Digia lowered its earnings guidance for the current year in September and now expects EBITA to fall below the level of the comparison period. The company expects revenue to continue to grow from last year. We expect full-year revenue to grow by just under one percent to 219 MEUR and reported EBITA to decline to 19.4 MEUR (2025: 21.3 MEUR). As guidance was recently updated, we do not expect any changes to it in connection with the Q3 report.
In the earnings release, we will pay particular attention to management's comments on the development of the demand environment for the rest of the year and next year. Although the OP agreement was a strong commercial demonstration of the competitiveness of the company's own products, we estimate that the general market situation has remained challenging. We will also pay attention to the productivity of strategic investments and the progress of the Savangard integration. On the back of its strong balance sheet, we believe Digia remains well-positioned to continue its international expansion through acquisitions despite market uncertainty.