Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/28/2026 at 07:50 am EET

Source: Inderes

CapMan will publish its Q3 report on Thursday at 08:00 am EET. We expect the company's earnings to improve from the comparison period, driven by growing management fees. However, the main focus of the report will once again be on the progress of fundraising, which is critical for the company's investment story. The extensive report published in the summer can be read here.

New sales and carried interest support the top line

We estimate CapMan's Q3 revenue to grow to 18.1 MEUR (Q3'25: 15.4 MEUR). Growth is driven particularly by management fees, supported by the first closings of the NRE IV and Infra III funds completed in the previous quarter and the CAERUS acquisition (completed in August 2025). We expect management fees to increase by 19% as a result of AUM growth. In addition, we expect the company to book small carried interest income for the review period (Q3'26e: 1.0 MEUR). In new sales, we expect AUM to have grown only marginally from the Q2 level (Q3'26e: 7,733 MEUR). We do not expect the company to have made closings for its flagship funds during Q3, meaning that new sales will largely depend on open-ended real estate funds and Wealth. We continue to expect significant AUM growth for Q4 driven by flagship funds, and faster-than-expected progress in this already during Q3 would naturally be positive.

Scaling of fee profit and cost control in focus

We expect adjusted EBIT to rise to 9.9 MEUR (Q3'25: 8.5 MEUR). Fee income, which is critical to the investment story, should clearly improve due to increased management fees (Q3'26e: 4.6 MEUR). CapMan's cost level developed positively for the first time in a long while in Q2, and this trend should ideally continue in Q3, as significant cost scaling is key to the earnings improvement in the coming years. Estimating quarterly investment income is notoriously difficult, but we expect it to be at a relatively normal level (Q3'26e: 4.3 MEUR).

The progress of fundraising is the most important takeaway from the earnings release

We expect CapMan to reiterate its guidance for this year, based on which assets under management and the profitability of fee income will grow during 2026. As these targets are already largely taken for granted at this point in the year, the guidance itself offers little new information.

By far the most important contribution of the report and webcast relates to the ongoing, historically broad fundraising cycle. Although Q2 delivered important successes in the form of first closings, the company still has much to prove regarding sales. In our view, the fundraising for the NRE IV real estate fund currently entails a significant risk due to persistent headwinds in the market, and we would not be surprised if this is also reflected in the company's comments. Therefore, we consider it of paramount importance that CapMan can demonstrate strong progress in the fundraising for Infrastructure and Natural Capital to offset the challenges on the real estate side. The progress of fundraising for the new CAERUS flagship fund is also under a magnifying glass, as investor demand for it is currently difficult to assess. Although we do not expect significant AUM growth from the company in Q3, comments should continue to indicate clear progress regarding key fundraising.

In connection with Q2, the company made surprisingly strong comments, expecting carried interest income for the rest of the year. In practice, this means either the Infra1 or Buyout11 fund entering into carry. At this stage of the year, the company should already have reasonable visibility into the exit processes, and comments on this will naturally be of interest, as the carried interest potential of both mentioned funds is significant.