Canatu H2'25 preview: Company needs to deliver strong growth again this year

Source: Inderes

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/24/2026 at 7:25 am EET.

Canatu will publish its H2 report on Tuesday, March 3, at 9:00 am EET. The company's earnings release can be followed here at 12:00 noon EET. We expect the company's revenue and earnings to have decreased significantly from the comparison period, when the deliveries of the company's first carbon nanotube reactors supported the figures. No new reactor orders were seen in 2025, but for this year, we expect the delivery of two new reactors, which should lead to strong revenue growth again. We will be looking for confirmation of this in the company's outlook and guidance. Also, any comments on the progress of the reactor business with existing customers and the sales outlook are of particular interest in the report.

We forecast revenue to have declined due to the absence of new reactor deliveries

We expect Canatu's H2 revenue to have been 7.6 MEUR, which would mean a year-on-year decrease of around 31% (Q4'24: 10.9 MEUR). The decline in revenue is due to the absence of reactor deliveries, as in 2024 the company recognized revenue from the first two reactor deliveries in the semiconductor sector. No new reactor orders were seen during 2025. However, we expect sales of inspection supplies to have continued to grow, although there is no precise visibility into revenue development. Overall, we expect Semiconductor Industry revenue to have decreased by 43% to 5.6 MEUR.

We estimate Automotive revenue to have grown to 2.0 MEUR (H2’24: 1.1 MEUR). Revenue is supported by the joint development agreement with DENSO announced in April. The companies announced the expansion of their cooperation in January 2026.

Growth investments and low revenue have kept earnings clearly in the red

We forecast Canatu's adjusted EBIT to have been -6.8 MEUR in H2 (H2’24: -2.3 MEUR). The earnings level is weighed down by lower revenue than in the comparison period and the company's growth investments. Since its IPO, Canatu has continued to make significant investments in strengthening its organization, R&D, and expanding production capacity to achieve its long-term growth targets. Since a large portion of the company's costs are fixed personnel and development expenses, a decrease in revenue directly impacts profitability. If the company succeeds in growing its reactor business towards its targets in the coming years, profitability should improve significantly. Due to its development stage, we expect Canatu to keep its dividend payments on hold.  Canatu has strong financial capacity for investments, as its net cash position was still 96.2 MEUR at the end of H1.

2026 outlook and new reactor orders in focus

For Canatu's investment case, the 2026 outlook is central to the H2 report. We forecast strong growth for 2026 (29.8 MEUR, +100%), which will require new reactor orders from the semiconductor sector to materialize (our estimate: 2 units). The company's outlook should therefore reflect clear revenue growth for this year. We expect the company's earnings (2026e adj. EBIT -7.6 MEUR) to remain clearly in the red this year before strongly growing volumes turn them significantly positive in the following years. At this point, there is naturally still uncertainty regarding the growth rate, both in terms of volumes and their timing. However, the market environment looks favorable, as ASML, a key player in the industry, reported very strong Q4 orders in January, driven particularly by demand for EUV systems spurred by AI investments. The growing demand for the most advanced EUV systems should increase the demand potential for Canatu's carbon nanotube pellicles in the coming years. In addition, Canatu has attributed the subdued revenue development in 2025 to delayed reactor orders. In light of this, new orders could be expected this year, and if this does not happen, it would raise new questions about the company's growth outlook. The company will update its financial targets in connection with the Capital Markets Day on March 26. We forecast the current targets (revenue >100 MEUR and EBIT >30%) to be achieved in 2029, whereas the company's original target was for 2027.

In the report, we will also monitor comments on the progress of the automotive industry segment. The new co-development agreement signed in January with DENSO for the manufacturing of large-scale CNT films is a strategically significant step towards heaters covering the entire windshield. We are also interested in news from the diagnostics business, although the potential revenue here will likely only materialize sometime in the 2030s.