Apetit Q3'26 flash comment: Sweden’s seasonality was a positive surprise
Summary
- Apetit's Q3 EBIT significantly exceeded estimates, driven by unexpected seasonality in Swedish operations, while Finnish operations met expectations.
- Q3 revenue was 8% below estimates, with organic revenue decreasing by 4%, despite contributions from the Swedish pea business.
- Sweden's seasonal impact led to a Q3 adjusted EBIT of 5.0 MEUR, surpassing the estimate of 2.6 MEUR, though the company noted this does not indicate a change in annual profitability.
- Apetit reiterated its 2026 EBIT guidance of -2 to +1 MEUR, with efficiency measures in Sweden expected to impact earnings positively this year.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/23/2026 at 09:32 am EEST
| Estimates | Q3'25 | Q3'26 | Q3'26e | Difference (%) | 2026e | |
| MEUR / EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Act. vs. Inderes | Inderes | |
| Revenue | 41.4 | 41.3 | 45.0 | -8 % | 175 | |
| EBITDA | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 45 % | 10.2 | |
| EBIT (adj.) | 3.6 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 90 % | 0.7 | |
| EBIT | 3.2 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 90 % | -1.6 | |
| EPS (rep.) | 0.35 | 0.59 | 0.29 | 101 % | -0.71 | |
| Revenue growth-% | 2.2 % | -0.2 % | 8.7 % | -9 pp | 3.1 % | |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 8.7 % | 12.1 % | 5.8 % | 6.3 pp | 0.4 % |
Source: Inderes
Apetit reported its Q3 earnings today. EBIT significantly exceeded our estimates, driven by the seasonality of operations in Sweden, which we were unable to sufficiently anticipate due to the lack of comparison figures. For Finnish operations, the adjusted result was in line with estimates overall. However, we view the report as cautiously positive in the big picture, because the company expects the efficiency measures in Sweden to impact earnings already this year, and, on the other hand, considering seasonality, the starting point for profitability in Sweden may not be quite as weak as we previously estimated.
Revenue missed expectations
Q3 revenue was at the level of the comparison period, although the pea business acquired in Sweden contributed 1.6 MEUR to revenue (organic revenue decreased by 4%). Revenue was overall 8% below our estimate. In Food Solutions Finland, revenue was slightly weaker than anticipated and decreased by 3% due to exports, but domestic retail revenue and sales volumes grew, supported by, among other things, commercial successes. In Sweden, revenue was 1.6 MEUR, which was below our estimate (3 MEUR). In Oilseed Products, revenue decreased by 5%, while we expected 2% growth. The revenue of Oilseed Products typically fluctuates with market prices, and in addition, the company stated that the timing of deliveries had a negative impact on revenue.
Earnings beat driven particularly by Sweden's seasonality
Q3 adjusted EBIT was 5.0 MEUR, significantly exceeding our estimate of 2.6 MEUR and the level of the comparison period (3.6 MEUR). The beat came particularly from the Swedish pea business, for which quarterly comparison figures have not been published. The Swedish operations are highly seasonal, and during the pea harvesting season, the company can capitalize manufacturing costs on the balance sheet, which resulted in an EBIT of 1.7 MEUR in Q3, exceeding revenue (we estimated -0.4 MEUR). The company emphasized in its report that Sweden's strong Q3 result is related to timing and does not directly reflect a change in annual operational profitability. But on the other hand, the company stated that efficiency measures implemented in Sweden are already impacting this year's earnings.
Food Solutions' earnings for Finland stood at 3.5 MEUR, which was an overshoot compared to our forecast (3.0 MEUR), supported by well-performing harvest season production and volume growth in retail. In Oilseed Products, by contrast, the result remained at zero (we expected 0.7 MEUR) due to weak margins and delivery timing. The result of Group functions was exceptionally good (EUR -0.1 MEUR, Q3’25: -0.7 MEUR, we predicted -0.7 MEUR), as the company recorded a gain of 0.4 MEUR from real estate transactions. The share of the profit/loss of the associate company Sucros was -0.3 MEUR (Q3’25: -0.2 MEUR), slightly weaker than the zero result we expected.
Signs of progress in Sweden's earnings turnaround
Aperit reiterated the guidance that the 2026 EBIT is estimated to be between -2 and +1 MEUR. Although the strong result was a matter of seasonality, it may nevertheless have implications for our full-year earnings calculations, as it compensates for the losses in the Swedish pea business from H1. The company also said that efficiency measures at the Bjuv plant will impact earnings already this year, which would point to progress in the Swedish turnaround.