Aktia Q1'26 flash comment: Good development in asset management sales

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 4/30/2026 at 9:17 am EEST.

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus)

Aktia’s Q1 result fell clearly below our expectations. However, this was explained by market value changes in the investment portfolio of the life insurance business, and at first glance, the report did not offer any major surprises on the operational side. Nevertheless, asset management sales showed strong progress, though this was overshadowed by negative value changes during the quarter.

Weak performance of investment portfolio weighed on operating income

As expected, Aktia’s net interest income declined from the previous quarter, but the decline was slightly greater than we had anticipated. Development of loan demand was twofold. On the one hand, the corporate loan portfolio grew very strongly (+7% from the previous quarter), but due to weak demand for loans from households, the total loan book shrank slightly since the start of the year. Thus, the trend broadly followed public market data, although Aktia has managed to gain market share in the corporate sector. Similar to previous quarters, demand was strong, particularly for leasing, hire purchase, and factoring services.

Commission income was roughly in line with our estimate. In asset management, AuM was also at our estimated level of 16.6 BEUR. However, the underlying development was encouraging, as new sales performed exceptionally well. Demand was strongest in the banking segment, and net subscriptions by institutional clients were also slightly positive. On the flip side, value changes were slightly more negative than we anticipated, offsetting the positive impact of strong new sales. Nevertheless, net subscriptions are clearly a more valuable source of growth, as asset values fluctuate with the market. The quarter was also the company's fourth consecutive positive month in terms of sales. While this performance is not exceptional within the industry, it is moving in the right direction compared to Aktia's challenging past few years.

Net income from life insurance, on the other hand, was weighed down by the negative value development of the investment portfolio, which is why Aktia’s operating income in Q1 fell significantly short of our forecast. Overall, Aktia's operating income decreased by 12% from the comparison period to 64.8 MEUR.

Credit losses decreased significantly

Aktia's comparable operating expenses in Q1 were exactly as we expected, with growth of about 6% year-over-year. The cost level increased largely due to IT investments. The company did not report any non-recurring expenses in Q1.

Credit losses, on the other hand, were clearly more moderate than we expected (1.7 MEUR vs. 2.8 MEUR forecast). In addition, the quality of the loan book showed a slight improvement, as the proportion of non-performing loans continued to decrease.

Aktia's reported comparable EPS was EUR 0.19 for the quarter, which was well below our estimate (EUR 0.27). Two factors contributed to this. Most of this was due to the subdued development of net income from life insurance, in addition to the company slightly changing the calculation method for its earnings per share. Going forward, interest on AT1 debt instruments will be included in earnings per share, whereas previously, it only affected the amount of equity.

Earnings guidance unchanged

As expected, Aktia reiterated its earnings guidance for the current year and anticipates that its comparable operating profit will remain approximately at the same level as in 2025. The underlying assumptions of the guidance remained largely unchanged, but the outlook for credit losses was revised slightly upward. This is due to updated credit risk models, which will result in a decrease in credit loss provision amounts. According to the company’s estimate, this will also have a one-off positive result impact of 7–10 MEUR, which will be recognized in Q2. While this is not of significant importance, it does support our previous assessments of the moderate risk level of the company’s loan portfolio.